Futures contract bɛ kɛ ka jago kɛ ka ɲɛsin fɛn walima nafolo sanni ni feereli ma siniɲɛsigi bolodalen na sɔngɔ latigɛlen na. O wajibi in ye cogo min na o lakana in ni sugandili min bɛ jo di sanni walima feereli ma, nka a tɛ wajibiya k’o kɛ. Futures bɛ jagokɛɲɔgɔn fila bɛɛ wajibiya u k’u ka wajibiw dafa. O waati kelen na, fɛnw falenfalenni fɛnw ɲɔgɔn falen-falen o jago baara suguw senfɛ, o tɛ kɛ.
Futures ye mun ye ani mun na u bɛ baara kɛ ni u ye wariko sugu la
Futures contracts bɛ kɛ ka sugu sɔngɔ lakika sigi sen kan minɛn kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnen dɔ la. U ye nafa dɔw sɔrɔ minnu bɛ tali kɛ waridonnaw na:
- Speculative transactions , min bɛ sira Di ka nafaw bɔ fɛnw na.
- Risk insurance through hedging , o min ka di fɛnw feerelaw ni fɛnw sanbagaw ye.
Futures bɛ baara kɛ ni fɛnw ni fɛnw suguyaw ye, u bɛ dɔn ni paramɛtiriw kunbabaw ye :
- Waleya waati, n’o ye don min ye jagokɛcogo bolodara.
- Jago kun, kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la, fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw, lakanafɛnw walima fɛnw, wari.
- Jago bɛ kɛ fɛn min kan, o fɛn falen-falen.
- Quote unité (yɔrɔ minnu bɛ fɔ).
- Margin hakɛ.
Futures contract ye farati ye, nka a fana ye jilama ye kosɛbɛ, min tɛ sabati kosɛbɛ. Sannikɛla b’a ka layidu ta ko a bɛ sɔn o fɛn ma, nin waati in na, min ma labɛn feereli kama. Nka, waati kofɔlen tɛmɛnen kɔfɛ, mɔgɔ si tɛ se k’a wajibiya tiɲɛ na ka fɛnw san minnu kofɔlen bɛ lakanasɛbɛn kɔnɔ, bawo fɛnw lasecogo lakikaw tɛ yen. Futures de ka kan walasa ka fɛn dɔ sɔngɔ sigi sen kan, wa n’a waati tɛmɛna, ko saba la kelen bɛ se ka waleya:
- Ka bɛnkansɛbɛn kɔnɔ mɔgɔ fila bɛɛ ka balansi mara.
- Balance A falenni ani balansi B dɔgɔyali.
- B balansi falenni ka kɛɲɛ ni A balansi dɔgɔyali ye.
Ni sannikɛla ka jatebɔsɛbɛn falenni bɛ kɛ ka kɛɲɛ ni feerelikɛla ka jatebɔsɛbɛn dɔgɔyali ye, o tuma na, minɛn nafa bɛ bonya. O kɔrɔ ye ko waridonna A tun bɛna se ka fɛn in san sɔngɔ dɔgɔman na, k’a feere kokura sɔngɔba la, o cogo la, a tun bɛna nafa sɔrɔ fɛn na. Tiɲɛ na, fɛnw falenfalenni bɛ suguba kɔnɔmɔgɔw kisi baara wajibiyalenw kɛli ma, sigikafɔw, ka teliya ka danfara di jagokɛla ma wari lakika la. Ni sɔngɔ ma Changé, o tuma balansi bɛ to a cogo la. Ko sabanan bɛ kɛ ni fɛnw sɔngɔ binna, o min tun ye nafa ye a daminɛ na feerekɛla ma. Sisan i bɛ se ka fɛnw feere cogoya ɲumanw na, sisan suguya sɔngɔ ka dɔgɔ ni min sɛbɛnna ɲɔgɔnye kɔnɔ. N’an tun bɛ kuma fɛn lakika dɔ kan, o tuma na fɛ, feerekɛla tun bɛ se k’a san suguya nafa la, k’a feere sɔngɔ la min fɔra siniɲɛsigiw kɔnɔ. Exchange, nin ko in na, . bɛ mɔgɔw lafiya ka bɔ mago la ka fɛn lakikaw ta, nka a bɛ jatebɔ wajibiyalenw kɛ dɔrɔn ani ka feerekɛla ka jatebɔsɛbɛn falen hakɛ dɔ la, o min ye danfara ye suguya nafa ni sɔngɔ min kofɔlen bɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn kɔnɔ. Ni mɔgɔw dɔ banna siniɲɛsigiw la sanni a ka waleya waati ka se, o tuma na, waati minnu fɔra bɛnkansɛbɛn kɔnɔ, olu bannen kɔfɛ, nafa min jiralen bɛ sɛbɛn kɔnɔ ani fɛnw suguya sɔngɔ bɛ suma ɲɔgɔn na.
Ni siniɲɛsigiko don, a ɲininen bɛ sannikɛlaw fɛ u ka jagokɛcogo bolodalen dɔ kuncɛ, wa ni u bɛ sugandi dɔ san, wale wɛrɛw bɛ kɛ ka kɛɲɛ ni waridonna ka fɛɛrɛ ye. Misali la, bɛnkansɛbɛn dɔ bɛ kɛ ka ɲɛsin aksidanw dicogo ma, minnu tigi b’a fɛ k’u feere don nataw la sɔngɔ dɔ la. N’a ye sannikɛla dɔ sɔrɔ, o tuma na fɛ, u bɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn dɔ kɛ, feerekɛla bɛ wari sɔrɔ o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ, wa a lase bɛ kɛ waati dafalen na. N’an bɛ kuma option kontraw kan, misali la, weleli option suguya, o tuma sannikɛla bɛ a nege jira ka securités san, nka nin waati in na, hakɛ min ka kan o kama, o t’a bolo. Feerekɛla bɛ sɔn, o cogo la, ka sugandi dɔ sɛbɛn min bɛ jo di ka jatebɔw san waati dafalen na. Ni o waati kɔnɔna na, sannikɛla ma a latigɛ ka sanni kɛ, o tuma na, sugandili tɛ kɛ dɔrɔn. Nka, a bɛna ɲini feerekɛla fɛ a ka lakanafɛnw feere ni sannikɛla b’a fɛ ka sugandili kɛ, o min bɛ kɛ ni jatebɔfɛnw suguya nafa yeli caman kɛra kabini bɛnkansɛbɛn kɛra. O cogo la, jago bɛ kɛ ni greve sɔngɔ ye. O danfara min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ kɛ kelen ye ni waridonnaw bɛ ka baara kɛ ni bɛnkansɛbɛnw ye minnu bɛ se ka kɛ. Ni sigikafɔ bɛnkanw bɛ cogo min na, fɛn caman ɲɔgɔnna bɛ latigɛ don o don ani danfara jɔnjɔn min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ ban. O cogo la, feerekɛla tɛna sugu sɔngɔ sara ni jago dafara. Nka, fɛn falen-falen bɛna se ka garanti dɔw mara ka kɛɲɛ ni wajibiw ye minnu bɛ kɛ mɔgɔw fɛ. ni jatedenw ka suguya nafa yeli caman kɛra kabini bɛnkansɛbɛn dafara. O cogo la, jago bɛ kɛ ni greve sɔngɔ ye. O danfara min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ kɛ kelen ye ni waridonnaw bɛ ka baara kɛ ni bɛnkansɛbɛnw ye minnu bɛ se ka kɛ. Ni sigikafɔ bɛnkanw bɛ cogo min na, fɛn caman ɲɔgɔnna bɛ latigɛ don o don ani danfara jɔnjɔn min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ ban. O cogo la, feerekɛla tɛna sugu sɔngɔ sara ni jago dafara. Nka, fɛn falen-falen bɛna se ka garanti dɔw mara ka kɛɲɛ ni wajibiw ye minnu bɛ kɛ mɔgɔw fɛ. ni jatedenw ka suguya nafa yeli caman kɛra kabini bɛnkansɛbɛn dafara. O cogo la, jago bɛ kɛ ni greve sɔngɔ ye. O danfara min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ kɛ kelen ye ni waridonnaw bɛ ka baara kɛ ni bɛnkansɛbɛnw ye minnu bɛ se ka kɛ. Ni sigikafɔ bɛnkanw bɛ cogo min na, fɛn caman ɲɔgɔnna bɛ latigɛ don o don ani danfara jɔnjɔn min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ ban. O cogo la, feerekɛla tɛna sugu sɔngɔ sara ni jago dafara. Nka, fɛn falen-falen bɛna se ka garanti dɔw mara ka kɛɲɛ ni wajibiw ye minnu bɛ kɛ mɔgɔw fɛ. Ni sigikafɔ bɛnkanw bɛ cogo min na, fɛn caman ɲɔgɔnna bɛ latigɛ don o don ani danfara jɔnjɔn min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ ban. O cogo la, feerekɛla tɛna sugu sɔngɔ sara ni jago dafara. Nka, fɛn falen-falen bɛna se ka garanti dɔw mara ka kɛɲɛ ni wajibiw ye minnu bɛ kɛ mɔgɔw fɛ. Ni sigikafɔ bɛnkanw bɛ cogo min na, fɛn caman ɲɔgɔnna bɛ latigɛ don o don ani danfara jɔnjɔn min bɛ sugandiliw ni siniɲɛsigiw cɛ, o bɛ ban. O cogo la, feerekɛla tɛna sugu sɔngɔ sara ni jago dafara. Nka, fɛn falen-falen bɛna se ka garanti dɔw mara ka kɛɲɛ ni wajibiw ye minnu bɛ kɛ mɔgɔw fɛ.
Clearing bɛ kɛ don o don, o hukumu kɔnɔ, ɲɔgɔndan sarali bɛ kɛ variation margin la fo ka se a waati dafalen ma. O cogo la, sugandili kɛli bɛ kɛ nafa tɛ sɔrɔko siratigɛ la, bawo a tɛ se ka kɛ ka nafolo di sɔngɔ la min tun bɛ bɛn bɛnkansɛbɛn dafa waati la. Sugandili nafa la, ni o ko kɛlenw yiriwali sugu ye, waati kuntaala surun sɔngɔ dɔ bɛ yen tuma bɛɛ min bɛ tunun ni waati dafalen daminɛ ye. Sugandili waleyali tɛna nɔ bila jatebɔsɛbɛn balansi la, wa sugandili bɛna bila siniɲɛsigi nɔ na terminal kɔnɔ. Futures expiration – min bɛ kɛ jɔyɔrɔ la: https://youtu.be/QQjRRxXZP3Y
Danfara minnu bɛ futures ni forward contracts cɛ
Danfara fana bɛ forward ni futures bɛnkanw ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ, waridonnaw bɛ minnu kɛ. Foro ye jago ye min bɛ kɛ siɲɛ kelen fɛnw falen-falen kɔfɛ ani k’a miiri ko fɛn dɔ, lakanafɛnw walima wari sanni bɛna kɛ don nataw la. Fɛnɲɛnɛmaw bɛ kɔn ka baro kɛ sarati kunbabaw kan:
- sɔngɔ;
- bɛnkanw;
- sarati wɛrɛw.
O cogo la, jago bɛ kɛ ni nafolo lakikaw ye, wa a tɛ kɛ i n’a fɔ nataw, n’an tɛ kuma fɛnw jiginni kan.
Forobaciyɛn in dabɔra walasa ka jagokɛlaw ka asiransi kɛ sɔngɔ jiginni na minnu bɛ se ka kɛ don nataw la. Sariya gɛlɛn si tɛ yen ni bɛnkansɛbɛn bɛ kɛ, o de kama, o jago suguw tɛ se ka kɛ fɛnw falenfalenni na.
Fɛnɲɛnɛma ni siniɲɛsigi bɛnkansɛbɛnw bɛ danfara bɔ ɲɔgɔn na nin ko ninnu na:
- laɲiniw – ɲɛfɛla bɛna kuncɛ nafolo lakikaw feereli walima sanni kama, o kɔrɔ ye ko sariya bɛɛ jateminɛni bɛ nafa don mɔgɔ fila bɛɛ la. Filanan na, siniɲɛsigi bɛnkansɛbɛnw bɛ ka u yɛrɛ ka jɔyɔrɔw lakana walima ka nafa sɔrɔ sɔngɔ danfara la. Futures dɔrɔn de la 5% la, o bɛ taa ni mɔgɔw ye fɛn lakikaw walima wariko minɛnw falenfalenni na ;
- nafolo hakɛ – ni u bɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn dɔ kɛ min bɛ taa ɲɛ, jagokɛlaw bɛ u yɛrɛma jatebɔ hakɛ wajibiyalen na, k’u magow jateminɛ. Ni siniɲɛsigiko don, hakɛw bɛ latigɛ fɛnw falenfalenni fɛ, wa suguba kɔnɔmɔgɔw ka kan ka bɛnkansɛbɛn hakɛ dɔ waleya ;
- minɛnw ka ɲumanya – ɲɛfɛ bɛ sababu di ka baara kɛ ni nafolo suguya o suguya ye, ka kɛɲɛ ni ɲinini minnu bɛ bɔ sannikɛla fɛ. Ni a bɛ fɔ siniɲɛsigi ma, minɛnw ka ɲumanya bɛ latigɛ ni fɛnw falenfalenni ɲɛfɔli ye ;
- fɛnw lase – ni bolonɔ bilala forobaciyɛn na, nafolo bɛ di tuma bɛɛ, ani ni nataw lase bɛ kɛ cogo la min sigira sen kan fɛnw falenfalenni fɛ, nka a ka c’a la, a tɛ na o ma fewu
- sariyaw – fɛnw dicogo sariyaw ni u bɛ bolonɔ bila ɲɛfɛ, olu bɛ latigɛ jagokɛlaw fɛ. Future kontraw ka sariyaw bɛ latigɛ fɛnw falenfalenni fɛ;
- liquidité – bɛnkansɛbɛn min bɛ taa ɲɛ, o bɛ dɔn ni liquidité danma ye, bawo a kuncɛcogo sariyaw bɛ sɔn ka kɛ ɲɔgɔndan sɛrɛkili dɔ ye, a kɛra minnu ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ. Futures ye minɛnw ye minnu ka ji ka bon kosɛbɛ, nka, nin taamasiyɛn in hakɛ bɛ bɔ nafolo min bɛ a kɔnɔ, o cogoya de la.
Jagokɛlaw bɛ se ka jɔyɔrɔ surunw ni jɔyɔrɔ janw da wuli ni u bɛ jago kɛ ni siniɲɛsigi bɛnkanw ye. O fɛɛrɛ in bɛ tali kɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn sanni na nafolo dɔ dicogo la, wa ni dɔ farala siniɲɛsigi nafa kan, a bɛ feere hali sanni bɛnkansɛbɛn ka ban. Baara kɛli ni jɔyɔrɔ surunw ye, o ye ka siniɲɛsigi feere ni yiriwaliko juguw kɛra. Ni ko ɲɛnabɔra kɔfɛ, a bɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn san kokura, nka a musaka ka dɔgɔ, ka sɔrɔ sɔrɔ sɔngɔ danfara kan. Futures bɛna taa ɲɔgɔn fɛ ni nafolo basigilen ye, nka, danfara dɔ bɛ u ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ, ka kɛ nivo ye ni waati dafalen bɛ ka surunya. Futures ye mun ye ani jago kɛcogo Moskow Exchange ka bɔlenw sugu la – jago fɛɛrɛw ka ɲɛsin siniɲɛsigi bɛnkanw ma: https:/ /youtu.be/ZDg14Rya6LI
Futures jago nafa ni a dɛsɛ
Nafa damadɔ bɛ futures jago la:
- musaka wɛrɛw tɛ fara a kan ani sara dogolenw;
- sɔrɔli bɛ yen siniɲɛsigi pooli dɔ la min bɛ ban san kelen kɔnɔ ;
- nafolo sɔrɔta ka caya, a ka wuli ka bɔ a nɔ na ani a ka jagokɛcogo fangama.
Jagokɛlaw ka bɛnkansɛbɛnw nafa tɛ minnu na:
- a ma bɛn jago kuntaalajan ma, bawo a bɛ baara kɛ waati dɔ kɔnɔ;
- ni waati dafalen kɛra, bɛnkanw bɛ dabila u yɛrɛma, ka jateminɛ kɛ suguya sɔngɔ la sisan ani komandi minnu bɛ sen na, olu bɛ bɔ yen;
- aw tɛ se ka jago dafalenw wuli ka taa bɛnkansɛbɛn dɔ la min bɛ ban kalo nata la.
Aw bɛ nafa ni dɛsɛ bɛɛ jateminɛ sani aw ka nin minɛnw jago minnu farati ka bon kosɛbɛ.
Future kontra suguyaw
Future kontra suguya fila bɛ yen:
- Jiginni.
- Sigida – ni jiginni tɛ.
Futures déliverables bɛ sannikɛla ni feerekɛla wajibiya u ka fɛnw feere tiɲɛ na ani k’u sara ka kɛɲɛ ni sariyaw ye minnu fɔra bɛnkansɛbɛn kɔnɔ. Bɛnkan min bɛ u ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ, o bɛ kɛ sɔngɔ la min tun latigɛra jago don laban na. Ni, ni waati latigɛlen don, feerekɛla ma se ka fɛnw di sannikɛla ma, o tuma na, fɛnw falen-falen bɛ jalakiw da a kan.
Jateminɛnafutures tɛ tali kɛ cogo si la ni fɛnw dicogo yɛrɛ ye. A bɛ jate ko mɔgɔ kelen bɛna danfara min bɛ nafolo nafa cɛ jago kɛtuma na ani fɛn sɔngɔ yɛrɛyɛrɛ cɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn bantuma na. Labɛnni min bɛ kɛ ɲɔgɔndanw ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ, o bɛ kɛ wari la, wa fɛnw lasecogo farikoloma tɛ di. O jago suguw bɛ kɛ hedging walima speculative manipulation kama. Hedging (hedging) b’a to i bɛ se ka bɔnɛ minnu sɔrɔ ni i bɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn dɔ kɛ sugu wɛrɛ la, olu bɛ se ka kɛ kelen ye.
Futures kontra sɔngɔ – contango ani kɔfɛtaama
Futures contract bɛ tila ka kɛ fɛnw falenfalenfɛn kelen ye, min nafa tɛ kelen ye ni nafolo sɔngɔ tɛ kelen ye. Nin jiralan in bɛ se ka nɔ bila kofɔlenw ni faratiw la minnu bɛ sɔrɔ fɛn dɔ Changement min bɛ se ka kɛ bɛnkanw ko la minnu kɛra ka tɛmɛ. Nafolo sɔngɔ min bɛ sugu la ani o fɛn in sɔngɔ nataw bɛ se ka kɛ ni hakɛ jugu walima hakɛ ɲuman ye.
Ni bɛnkansɛbɛn sɔngɔ ka bon ka tɛmɛ nafolo kan, o tuma na, o jamana in bɛ wele ko contango. Ni ko in bɛ kɔsegin, an bɛ kuma kɔfɛko de kan.
O cogo la, waridonna fanba jigi b’a kan ko nafolo min bɛ fɛnw falen-falen na, o sɔngɔ bɛna jigin kosɛbɛ sɔɔni. Futures sɔngɔ ye sisan suguya nafa ye bɛnkansɛbɛn dɔ la min bɛ waati dɔ dafa. Sɔngɔ tilennen bɛ ɲɛfɔ iko musaka min bɛ kɛ ka nafolo sɔrɔ min bɛna di o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ, ka tila k’a minɛ, ka tɛmɛ baara kɛli kan, tɔnɔ sɔrɔli fɛ, feereli fɛ walima baarakɛcogo fɛ. O waati kelen na, sɔngɔ tilennen na, nafa b’a la jagokɛla ka bɛnkansɛbɛn san nafolo dɔ kama min bɛ se ka kɛ don dɔ ye. Danfara min bɛ sɔngɔ bɛnnin ni sisan sɔngɔ cɛ, o bɛ wele ko bɛnkansɛbɛn basigilen, o min bɛ jamana fila kɔnɔ ka kɛɲɛ ni nafolo sɔngɔ ye yɔrɔnin kelen.
Asuransi
Jago bɛ kɛ ka kɛɲɛ ni jagokɛcogo dɔ labɛnni ye, wari bilalen dɔ fɛ, o hakɛ ye 2 – 10% ye bɛnkansɛbɛn nafolo sɔngɔ la. O ye asiransi ye min bɛ ɲini fɛnw falenfalen fɛ ka bɔ mɔgɔ fila bɛɛ la minnu bɛ don bɛnkansɛbɛn na. Hakɛ latigɛlen bɛ bali jatew kan, ka kɛ garanti sugu dɔ ye. Ni futures sɔngɔ wulila, o tuma na feerekɛla ka margin bɛ bonya, ni a jiginna, a bɛ dɔgɔya. O fɛɛrɛ b’a to i bɛ se ka i yɛrɛ tanga wari saracogo ma ni i bɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn dɔ kɛ. Ni siniɲɛsigi dɔ bɛ yen fo ka se a dadon ma, mɔgɔw b’u ka wajibiw dafa ni nafolo dicogo ye walima ni warijɛ bilali ye. Ni lajɛden dɔ t’a fɛ k’a ka wajibiw dafa, fɛn falen-falen b’o kɛ a ye, ka wari hakɛ dɔ to a yɛrɛ ye ka bɔ garanti la. Nin fɛɛrɛ in bɛ baara kɛ dɔrɔn bɛnkansɛbɛnw kama minnu bɛ nafolo dɔ lasecogo ɲɛfɔ.
Dafa waatiw
Kontra dafalen don damadɔ bɛ yen. Misali la, dɔrɔmɛ jatebɔsɛbɛn, aksidanw, wariko minɛnw, a dafalen don bɛ kɛ kalo saba o kalo saba kalo laban juma sabanan na. Futures bɛ yen ni bɔli ye kalo o kalo, kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la CME Crude Oil. Kontra suguya wɛrɛw bɛ se ka ban don wɛrɛw la. Walasa ka siniɲɛsigi jago kɛ ka ɲɛ, i ka kan ka i hakili to bɛnkansɛbɛn laban don na. Ni dɔ bɔra hakɛ la min ma labɛn, jagokɛdon nata bannen kɔfɛ, o tuma na, waati bɛnnen don, wa jagokɛla fanba bɛ daminɛ ka jagokow dabila sanni bɛnkansɛbɛn ka ban. Futures kontra kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ ni waati dafalen ye. Aw ye bɛnkansɛbɛn ɲɛfɔcogo lajɛ walasa ka aw ka bɛnkansɛbɛn dafa donw dɔn. A ka c’a la, a hakɛ bɛ dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ bawo futures contract bɛ se tile damadɔ kɔnɔ a bannen kɔfɛ. O bɛ kɛ bawo jagokɛlaw bɛɛ bɛ u jɔyɔrɔw datugu waati kunkurunnin kɔnɔ ani mɔgɔw ni tɔn minnu b’a fɛ ka fɛn in san walima k’a feere, olu dɔrɔn de bɛ taa a fɛ ka jago kɛ ani k’u jɔyɔrɔw minɛ fo ka se a waati dafalen ma. Jagokɛlaw minnu bɛ waati kunkurunnin kɛ, olu tɛ don nataw ka bɛnkansɛbɛnw na sanni u ka ban, u bɛ wari sɔrɔ dɔrɔn walima ka bɔnɛ a la ka da sɔngɔ jiginni kan min bɛ kɛ bɛnkansɛbɛn sanni walima a surunyali kɔfɛ.
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