Mgwirizano wam’tsogolo umagwiritsidwa ntchito pogula ndi kugulitsa katundu kapena katundu m’tsogolomu pamtengo wokhazikika. Udindo uwu ndi momwe chitetezochi chimasiyana ndi njira yomwe imapereka ufulu wogula kapena kugulitsa, koma osakakamizidwa kutero. Tsogolo limakakamiza onse awiri kuti akwaniritse zomwe akufuna. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kusinthanitsa zinthu zakuthupi panthawi ya malonda otere sikuchitika.
- Kodi zam’tsogolo ndi chifukwa chiyani zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pamsika wogulitsa
- Kusiyana pakati pa zam’tsogolo ndi zosankha
- Kusiyana pakati pa zam’tsogolo ndi zam’tsogolo
- Njira zamalonda zamtsogolo
- Ubwino ndi kuipa kwa malonda amtsogolo
- Mitundu yamakontrakitala am’tsogolo
- Mtengo wa mgwirizano wamtsogolo – contango ndi kubwerera m’mbuyo
- Inshuwaransi
- Madeti otha ntchito
Kodi zam’tsogolo ndi chifukwa chiyani zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pamsika wogulitsa
Mapangano amtsogolo amagwiritsidwa ntchito kukhazikitsa mtengo weniweni wamsika wa chida china. Ali ndi mtengo wake wogwiritsidwa ntchito kwa osunga ndalama:
- Zochita zongoyerekeza , zololeza kupeza phindu lazakuthupi.
- Inshuwaransi yowopsa kudzera mu hedging , zomwe ndi zosangalatsa kwa ogulitsa ndi ogula katundu.
Tsogolo limagwiritsidwa ntchito m’misika yazamalonda ndi yamalonda, imadziwika ndi magawo akulu:
- Nthawi yochitira, yomwe ndi tsiku lomwe ntchitoyo idakonzedwa.
- Mutu wa malonda, makamaka, zopangira, zotetezedwa kapena katundu, ndalama.
- Kusintha komwe kumapangidwira.
- Quote mayunitsi.
- Kukula kwa malire.
- Kusunga malire a mbali zonse za mgwirizano.
- Kubwezeretsanso kwa Balance A ndi kuchepa kwa Balance B.
- Kubwezeretsanso kuchuluka kwa B motsutsana ndi kumbuyo kwa kuchepa kwa kuchuluka kwa A.
Ngati pali kubwezeretsanso kwa akaunti ya wogula motsutsana ndi kuchepetsedwa kwa akaunti ya wogulitsa, ndiye kuti mtengo wa chipangizocho ukuwonjezeka. Ndiye kuti, Investor A atha kugula malondawo pamtengo wotsika ndikugulitsanso pamtengo wokwera, motero amapeza phindu. M’malo mwake, kusinthanitsa kumapulumutsa omwe akutenga nawo gawo pamsika kuti asagwire ntchito zofunika, kukhazikika, nthawi yomweyo kupatsa gululo kusiyana kwa ndalama zenizeni. Ngati mtengo sunasinthe, ndiye kuti ndalamazo zimakhala zofanana. Chochitika chachitatu chikuchitika ngati mtengo wa katundu ukugwa, womwe poyamba unali wopindulitsa kwa wogulitsa. Tsopano mutha kugulitsa katundu pazifukwa zabwino kwambiri, mtengo wamsika wapano womwe ndi wocheperako womwe udalembetsedwa pakulumikizana. Ngati tikukamba za mankhwala enieni, ndiye kuti wogulitsa akhoza kugula pamtengo wamsika ndikugulitsa pamtengo wotchulidwa m’tsogolomu. Kusinthana, muzochitika izi, imathandizira maphwando kufunikira konyamula katundu weniweni, koma amangowerengera zofunikira ndikubwezeretsanso akaunti ya wogulitsa ndalama zina, zomwe ndi kusiyana pakati pa mtengo wamsika ndi mtengo wotchulidwa mu mgwirizano. Ngati mmodzi wa maphwando akukana zam’tsogolo isanafike nthawi ya kuphedwa kwake, ndiye pambuyo pa kutha kwa mawu omwe atchulidwa mu mgwirizanowo, mtengo womwe wasonyezedwa mu chikalatacho ndi mtengo wa msika wa katundu umafananizidwa. [id id mawu = “attach_11873” align = “aligncenter” wide = “613”] ndiye pambuyo pa kutha kwa ziganizo zomwe zafotokozedwa mu mgwirizanowu, kufaniziridwa kwa mtengo womwe wasonyezedwa mu chikalatacho ndi mtengo wamsika wa katundu umachitika. [id id mawu = “attach_11873” align = “aligncenter” wide = “613”] ndiye pambuyo pa kutha kwa ziganizo zomwe zafotokozedwa mu mgwirizanowu, kufaniziridwa kwa mtengo womwe wasonyezedwa mu chikalatacho ndi mtengo wamsika wa katundu umachitika. [id id mawu = “attach_11873” align = “aligncenter” wide = “613”]
Kusiyana pakati pa zam’tsogolo ndi zosankha
Mtsogolo ndi zosankha mapangano amasiyana muzoyenera za maphwando. Izi zimadziwonetsera panthawi yomaliza. [id id mawu = “attach_11885” align = “aligncenter” wide = “391”]
Kusiyana pakati pa zam’tsogolo ndi zam’tsogolo
Palinso kusiyana pakati pa makontrakitala apatsogolo ndi amtsogolo omwe osunga ndalama amalowa nawo. Kupititsa patsogolo ndi nthawi imodzi yomwe imapangidwa kunja kwa kusinthanitsa ndikuganiza kuti kugula katundu, zotetezedwa kapena ndalama zidzachitika mtsogolomu. Maphwando amakambirana zikhalidwe zazikulu pasadakhale:
- mtengo;
- mawu;
- zina zowonjezera.
Pankhaniyi, kugulitsako kumachitika ndi katundu weniweni, osati monga zam’tsogolo, pamene sitikulankhula za kutumiza katundu.
Kutsogolo kwapangidwa kuti kuwonetsetse omwe akutenga nawo gawo pazotsutsana ndi kusinthasintha kwamitengo komwe kungachitike mtsogolo. Palibe malamulo okhwima pomaliza mgwirizano, choncho, zochitika zoterezi sizingatheke pakusinthana.
[id id mawu = “attach_11877” align = “aligncenter” wide = “653”]
- zolinga – kutsogolo kudzatsirizidwa kugulitsa kapena kugula katundu weniweni, zomwe zikutanthauza kulingalira kwa zinthu zonse zomwe ziri zopindulitsa kwa onse awiri. M’chigawo chachiwiri, makontrakitala am’tsogolo akubisala maudindo awo kapena kupindula ndi kusiyana kwa mitengo. Tsogolo mu 5% yokha ya milandu imatsogolera maphwando kusinthanitsa katundu weniweni kapena zida zachuma;
- kuchuluka kwa katundu – pomaliza mgwirizano wopita patsogolo, omwe akutenga nawo mbali pawokha amawerengera voliyumu yofunikira, poganizira zosowa zawo. Pankhani yamtsogolo, ma voliyumu amatsimikiziridwa ndi kusinthanitsa, ndipo otenga nawo gawo pamsika ali ndi ufulu wogwiritsa ntchito mapangano angapo;
- khalidwe la zida – kutsogolo kumapereka mwayi wogwiritsa ntchito katundu wamtundu uliwonse, malingana ndi zopempha zomwe zimachokera kwa wogula. Pankhani yamtsogolo, ubwino wa zidazo umatsimikiziridwa ndi ndondomeko ya kusinthanitsa;
- kutumiza katundu – posaina kutsogolo, katundu amaperekedwa nthawi zonse, ndipo pomaliza kupereka kwamtsogolo kumachitika mu mawonekedwe okhazikitsidwa ndi kusinthanitsa, koma nthawi zambiri sizimabwera konse;
- mawu – ziganizo zoperekera posaina kutsogolo zimatsimikiziridwa ndi maphwando omwe akuchitapo kanthu. Zolinga za mgwirizano wam’tsogolo zimatsimikiziridwa ndi kusinthanitsa;
- liquidity – mgwirizano wopita patsogolo umadziwika ndi ndalama zochepa, chifukwa mawu ake omaliza ndi ovomerezeka pamagulu ena apakati omwe adamalizidwa. Tsogolo ndi zida zamadzimadzi kwambiri, komabe, kuchuluka kwa chizindikirochi kumadalira mtundu wazinthu zomwe zili mkati.
[id id mawu = “attach_11876” align = “aligncenter” wide = “456”]
Njira zamalonda zamtsogolo
Kuti agulitse zam’tsogolo, amalonda amagwiritsa ntchito njira zingapo zodziwika:
- ndondomeko ya kusinthana kwa mgwirizano ikufaniziridwa ndi mwezi wotsatira umene kuperekedwa kwakonzedweratu ndi nthawi yopereka lipoti lotsatira;
- kuyerekezera kumapangidwa pakati pa mtengo wamalo wa gawo ndi mgwirizano wam’tsogolo, ngati mtengo wake uli wapamwamba, ndiye tikukamba za contango , yomwe imatengedwa kuti ndi yofunika kwambiri poyerekeza ndi mtengo wa katundu. Ngati zinthu zasinthidwa pamsika, ndiye kuti zimatchedwa backwardation , yomwe imatengedwa kuti ndi yotsika mtengo pokhudzana ndi mtengo woyambira. Ndi pa kusiyana kwa kusinthana komwe kumachitika pamene amalonda amapeza;
- kuphunzira za tchati chamtsogolo pogwiritsa ntchito kusanthula kwaukadaulo, zizindikiro, zinthu zofunika zomwe zingakhudze mtengo wa mgwirizano.
Kugulitsa ndi magawo othandizira:
- zanthawi;
- malo;
- kalendala.
[id caption id = “attach_11884” align = “aligncenter” width = “820”]
Ubwino ndi kuipa kwa malonda amtsogolo
Pali zabwino zingapo zamalonda am’tsogolo:
- palibe ndalama zowonjezera ndi ndalama zobisika;
- pali mwayi wopeza dziwe lamtsogolo ndikutha kwa chaka;
- kuchuluka kwa ndalama zamtengo wapatali, kusakhazikika komanso malonda osinthika.
Kuipa kwa makontrakitala amtsogolo:
- osakhala oyenera kugulitsa kwanthawi yayitali, popeza kuli koyenera kwa nthawi inayake;
- nthawi ikatha, zotsatsa zimatsekedwa zokha, poganizira mtengo wamsika womwe ulipo komanso malamulo omwe akudikirira amachotsedwa;
- simungathe kusamutsa malonda otseguka ku mgwirizano womwe utha mwezi wamawa.
Yesani zabwino ndi zoyipa zonse musanagulitse zida zowopsa izi.
Mitundu yamakontrakitala am’tsogolo
Pali mitundu iwiri ya makontrakitala am’tsogolo:
- Kutumiza.
- Kukhazikika – popanda zotengera.
Tsogolo lomwe lidzabweretsedwe limakakamiza wogula ndi wogulitsa kuti agulitsedi katunduyo ndikulipira malinga ndi zomwe zafotokozedwa mu mgwirizano. Kukhazikika pakati pawo kumachitika pamtengo womwe unakhazikitsidwa pa tsiku lomaliza la malonda. Ngati, ndi tsiku loyenera, wogulitsa sakanatha kupereka wogula katunduyo, ndiye kuti kusinthanitsa kumapereka chilango kwa iye.
Zoyerekezazam’tsogolo sizikukhudzana ndi kupezeka kwenikweni kwa zinthu. Zimaganiziridwa kuti m’modzi mwa maphwando adzalipira chipani china pazochitikazo kusiyana pakati pa mtengo wamtengo wapatali pa nthawi ya malonda ndi mtengo weniweni wa mankhwala pa nthawi ya mgwirizano. Kukhazikikana pakati pa ma counterparties kumapangidwa ndi ndalama, ndipo kubweretsa katundu wakuthupi sikuperekedwa. Zochita zotere zimapangidwira kutchingira kapena kunyengerera mongoyerekeza. Hedging imakupatsani mwayi wowongolera zotayika zomwe mungalandire mukamaliza kontrakitala pamsika wina.
Mtengo wa mgwirizano wamtsogolo – contango ndi kubwerera m’mbuyo
Mgwirizano wam’tsogolo umagawidwa ngati chinthu chimodzi chosinthanitsa, chokhala ndi mtengo wosiyana ndi mtengo wa katunduyo. Chizindikirochi chikhoza kukhudzidwa ndi zoneneratu ndi zoopsa zomwe zimadza chifukwa cha kusintha komwe kungachitike pamutu wa mapangano omwe adafikiridwa kale. Mtengo wa katundu pamsika ndi mtengo wam’tsogolo wa chinthu ichi ukhoza kukhala ndi chiŵerengero choipa kapena chabwino.
Ngati mgwirizano ndi wokwera mtengo kuposa katundu, ndiye kuti dziko lino limatchedwa contango. Pamene zinthu zasinthidwa, tikukamba za kubwerera m’mbuyo.
Munthawi imeneyi, osunga ndalama ambiri akuyembekeza kuti mtengo wazinthu pazosinthana udzatsika kwambiri. [id id mawu = “attach_11886” align = “aligncenter” wide = “800”]
Inshuwaransi
Kugulitsa kumachitika malinga ndi kuperekedwa kwa malonda, kudzera mu depositi, kuchuluka kwake komwe ndi 2 – 10% ya mtengo wamtengo wa mgwirizano. Iyi ndi inshuwaransi yomwe ikufunika posinthanitsa ndi onse omwe akulowa mu mgwirizano. Ndalama zomwe zimayikidwa zimatsekedwa pa akaunti, kupanga mtundu wa chikole. Ngati mtengo wamtsogolo ukukwera, ndiye kuti malire a wogulitsa akuwonjezeka, ndipo ngati atsika, amachepa. Njirayi imakuthandizani kuti mupewe njira yolipira mukamaliza mgwirizano. Tsogolo likachitika mpaka kutsekedwa, maphwando amakwaniritsa udindo wawo popereka katundu kapena kusamutsa ndalama. Pamene mmodzi wa otenga nawo mbali sakufuna kukwaniritsa udindo wake, kusinthanitsa kumamuchitira iye, kudzisiyira ndalama zina kuchokera ku chitsimikizo. Dongosololi limangogwira ntchito pamakontrakitala omwe amapereka zoperekera katundu.
Madeti otha ntchito
Pali masiku angapo otha ntchito. Mwachitsanzo, pa index ya dollar, masheya, zida zachuma, tsiku lotha ntchito ndi kotala Lachisanu lachitatu la mwezi watha wa kotala. Pali tsogolo lotuluka mwezi uliwonse, makamaka CME Crude Oil. Mitundu ina ya makontrakitala imatha masiku ena. Kuti mugulitse zam’tsogolo mopindulitsa, muyenera kukumbukira tsiku lomaliza la mgwirizano. Ngati pali kuchepa kosayembekezereka kwa voliyumu pambuyo pa kutha kwa tsiku lotsatira la malonda, ndiye kuti nthawiyo ndi yolondola, ndipo amalonda ambiri amayamba kutseka malonda asanayambe kutha kwa mgwirizano. [id id mawu = “attach_11871” align = “aligncenter” wide = “498”]
zur
Mani mlaif malaqa