Kodi junk bonds ndi chiyani ndipo muyenera kuyikamo ndalama?

Ndalama zopanda ntchito (zochuluka zokolola, zogulitsa zosagulitsa ndalama, zongoganizira za giredi, junk bond) ndi zitetezo zongoyerekeza zomwe zili ndi ngongole yotsika kwambiri. Amadziwika ndi mbiri yoyipa yazachuma komanso ngozi zambiri. Komabe, ichi ndi chida chopindulitsa kwambiri, kugulitsa komwe kumakupatsani mwayi wopeza phindu lalikulu. Ma bond amaperekedwa pa chiwongola dzanja chokwera, kukopa amalonda omwe akufuna kugula makampani awo omwe atsala pang’ono kulephera.
Otsatsa amasankha chida ichi chifukwa cha zokolola zake zambiri poyerekeza ndi zotetezedwa zakale. Phindu pa ma bond otetezeka amatsimikizika kukhala 10% pachaka. Ngakhale kuti zokolola za ndalama zopanda phindu zimatha kufika 200%, komabe, mwayi woti woperekayo abweze ngongole zake ndi wochepa kwambiri. Ngakhale zili choncho, pali gulu la osunga ndalama omwe amaika ndalama pachidachi chowopsa kwambiri. Ma bond osafunikira amaperekedwa ndi makampani omwe ali ndi mbiri yotsika kuti athe kukweza mwachangu ndalama zogwirira ntchito pochita bizinesi kapena kulipira ngongole. Kuphatikiza apo, amaperekedwa panthawi yolanda mabizinesi kuti asinthe ndalama kwa osunga ndalama.

Momwe mbiri ya msika wa junk bond idayambira

Mbiri ya msika wa junk bond idayamba mu 1970s. Michael Milken adachita nawo kafukufuku wofufuza zachitetezo chomwe alibe mavoti. Anatha kutsimikizira kuti kupangidwa kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zomangira zochepa pamapeto pake, kumabweretsa phindu lochulukirapo poyerekeza ndi zida zomwe zili ndi chiwerengero chapamwamba. Komabe, mu nkhani iyi, mwayi wa kusakhulupirika ukuwonjezeka kwambiri. Michael Milken adazindikira mayendedwe amsika, omwe amakhala ndi kutsika kwakanthawi kwachitetezo chodalirika, ndipamene kukwera kwa ma bond osafunikira kumayamba.
Pali mitundu ingapo ya mapepala otere:

• angelo akugwa – makampani omwe kale anali ndi mlingo wapamwamba, koma tsopano akukumana ndi zovuta zina;
• nyenyezi zomwe zikukwera – makampani oyambira omwe ali ndi katundu waung’ono komanso kusakhazikika kwachuma, omwe ali ndi chiwerengero chochepa;
• Makampani omwe ali ndi ngongole zambiri amakhala osowa ndalama kapena ogulidwa kwenikweni ndi ngongole zazikulu;
• Makampani omwe ali ndi ndalama zambiri ndi makampani omwe alibe ndalama zokwanira kapena mabizinesi omwe sangathe kupeza ngongole, komanso omwe akufuna kukopa osunga ndalama pakati pa anthu ndi mabungwe ovomerezeka.

Momwe mungasungire ndalama mu junk bonds

Musanagwiritse ntchito ndalama mu chida ichi, m’pofunika kuwerengera momwe zilili zoyenera ndikuwunika zoopsa zomwe zilipo. Poyamba, msika umawunikidwa kuti aphunzire mbiri yamakampani omwe akupereka. Kafukufuku wamsika amachitika kuti adziwe momwe chuma chikuyendera komanso zinthu zina zomwe zimakhudza kukhazikika kwamakampani. Muyenera kusamalira kusiyanasiyana kwamabizinesi ndikugula zotetezedwa za opereka angapo. Kutengera kusanthula komwe kunachitika, kulosera kwanthawi yayitali kwa chiwongola dzanja ndi kusintha kwa kusintha kwawo kumachitika. Phindu la chidacho ndi machitidwe ake pamsika umadziwika ndi zinthu zingapo:

• kugwiritsa ntchito mokangalika kwa ngongole pamsika ndi zokolola zenizeni zopitilira phindu pazachuma;
• kuwonjezeka kapena kuchepa kwa chiwongoladzanja sikukhudza mtengo wa chipangizocho, zomwe sizinganenedwe za ngongole wamba. Izi ndichifukwa cha mawu osafunikira pa nthawi yakukhwima komanso phindu lalikulu la katunduyo;
• phindu pa zomangira zopanda pake mwachindunji zimadalira momwe zinthu zilili pazachuma.

Makhalidwe a katunduwa akufanana ndi machitidwe a magawo, popeza phindu lawo limadalira kukhazikika kwa chikhalidwe cha woperekayo ndi mphamvu zake. Chuma chikalowa pansi, mtengo wa pepala lopanda kanthu umatsika kwambiri, pomwe phindu la wopereka limatsika. Ngati zokolola za kampani zikuwonjezeka, ndiye kuti mtengo wa zomangira ukuwonjezeka kwambiri. Kukhazikika kwachuma m’boma kumachepetsa kuopsa kogwira ntchito ndi ngongole. High-yield bonds (HDO), mbiri ya mapangidwe, dziko lamakono, kodi ndi bwino kuyika ndalama muzinthu zopanda ndalama komanso momwe musataye ndalama, msika wa junk bond ku Russia: https://youtu.be/j8FsQKE2l84

Momwe mungasankhire wopereka

Otsatsa amakulimbikitsani kuti musapitirire gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi a ndalama zomwe mumasunga mu junk bond. Kuti muchepetse ziwopsezo, gawo la wopereka m’modzi pagawo liyenera kupitilira 5%. Osunga ndalama odziwa zambiri sagulitsa ndalama zoposa 10% zandalama zomwe zilipo pamtundu wamtunduwu. Posankha zomangira zogula, m’pofunika kuphunzira ntchito za woperekayo, makamaka, kuti mudziwe ngati ali ndi zitetezo zina ndi ngongole. Iwo amalabadira ngongole zapagulu la kampaniyo komanso kuchuluka kwa ngongole zonse, zomwe zimatsimikizira kuthekera kwa kubwereketsa pakachitika ngozi yowonjezereka. Amaganiziranso ziyembekezo za bizinesi yomwe bizinesiyo imalumikizidwa nayo. Chiyembekezo cha lingaliro la bizinesi chingathandize kwambiri kampani kulipira ngongole.
Kuti muchepetse zoopsa, muyenera kuyika ndalama m’ma bond omwe amaperekedwa ndi makampani omwe akugwira ntchito muzachuma. Amakhala ndi katundu wopangira komanso amatulutsa ndalama. Ndikoyenera kupewa katundu amene walonjeza pa ngongole. Izi ndizofunikira chifukwa zochitika zoyipa kwambiri zimathandizira njira zokambilana za kukonzanso ngongole. Akatswiri amalimbikitsa kupewa kuyika ndalama m’mabond osafunikira amakampani a IT, chifukwa ngongole zawo zimaposa kuchuluka kwazinthu zomwe ali nazo pamabanki awo. Poika ndalama mu junk bond, opereka ndalama zakunja ayenera kuyika patsogolo zokolola zambiri. Izi zipangitsa kuti zitheke kusiyanitsa bwino ntchitoyo ndikuchepetsa ziwopsezo zomwe zingachitike chifukwa cha kusakhazikika kwa woperekayo. Kodi ndi koyenera kuyika ndalama muzitsulo zopanda pake komanso zokolola zotani: https://youtu.be/4Rfas4RGSEM Otsatsa malonda padziko lonse lapansi amakonda zomangira zopanda pake, popeza zida zapamwamba sizikulolani kuti muwerengere phindu lalikulu. Mwachitsanzo, ma bond a US Treasury azaka khumi amapereka kubweza kwapachaka kwa 2.1% yokha. Ndipo phindu lapakati la zomangira zopanda pake zaku US zimafika 5.8% pachaka.