Zvinhu zvinokanganisa mwero wekuchinjana

Muhupfumi hwenyika, hazvigoneke kufungidzira nyika isina kutengeserana kwenyika. Kuti uite izvi, chikamu chemari chechero nyika chinofanirwa kuenderana nemari yedzimwe nyika. Iyo nzira yekuyera kukosha kwemari yenyika mukuenzanisa nedzimwe mari ndiyo chiyero chekuchinjana, icho chinokonzerwa nezvinhu zvakawanda.

Exchange rate – chii ichocho?

Chiyero chekutsinhana (kana chenji) imari yeimwe nyika, inoyerwa nemari yenyika yeimwe nyika. Ruble yeRussia, dhora rekuAmerica, yen yeJapan yose mienzaniso yemari yenyika. Apo patinonzwa kuti dhora rekushandura rakasvika kuN rubles, iyi ndiyo kukosha kweRussia ruble, inoratidzwa mumari yenyika yeUnited States. Kuratidza mwero wekuchinjana kune zvazvinoreva kune rimwe zuva chete. Zuva rinotevera, vhiki kana mwedzi gare gare, chiyero chekutsinhanisa chinogona kuchinja zvakanyanya, uye ruzivo urwu rwave kutorasikirwa nekukosha kwayo.

Zvinhu zvinokanganisa mitengo yekuchinjana

Chiyero chekuchinjana chinogona kutsanangurwa nenzira mbiri: musika kana isiri musika. Muchiitiko chekutanga, chiyero chinoumbwa pamusika uye zvinoenderana nekupa uye kudiwa kwemari. Muchiitiko chechipiri, chiyero chinotarwa nehurumende pamitemo yemutemo.

Market

Chiyero chekuchinjana mumamiriro ezvinhu emusika chinotarwa nereshiyo yekugovera uye kudiwa kwemari yenyika. Chiyero chekuchinjana chenyika chero ipi zvayo pasi rose chinowanzoiswa kumari yepasirese 5, iyo yakanyanya kugadzikana kwenguva yakareba. Izvo:

• U.S. dollar;
• Euro;
• English pound sterling;
• Japanese yen;
• Swiss frank.

Nzvimbo iyo vatengesi nevatengi vemari vanodyidzana inonzi currency exchange. Kutsinhana ndiyo nzvimbo iyo, maererano nemitemo yekugovera uye kudiwa, mutengo wakanyanya kunaka unoumbwa, mune yedu, mutengo wemari yenyika.

Iyo yakakura mari yekutsinhana muRussian Federation ndiyo Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX).

Ko kudiwa kwemari yenyika kunoumbwa sei pakutsinhana kwemari? Ngatitii mamiriro akanaka ekudyara agadzirwa munyika uye vanoisa mari kunze kwenyika vakagadzirira kuisa mari yavo kuti vavhure maindasitiri matsva kana kusimudzira aripo. Nekugadzira, zvinodikanwa kutenga michina, zvishandiso, kutsvaga nzvimbo, kubhadhara mihoro kuvashandi uye kubhadhara mutero – zvese mumari yenyika.

Kuita chirongwa ichi, vatengesi vanouya kumusika wemasheya vaine chido chekutenga mari yenyika yenyika ino. Kudiwa kwemari yenyika kunowedzera, uye naizvozvo, chiyero chekuchinjana chemari iyi chinowedzerawo.

Mienzaniso yekuchinja kwehuwandu hwekuchinjana kwemari yenyika X inopesana nedhora rekuAmerica zvichienderana nekushanduka kwehuwandu hwekugovera kwedhora uye mari yenyika mumusika wekunze wekunze inoratidzwa patafura.

Criteria	Muenzaniso 1	Muenzaniso 2	Muenzaniso 3	Muenzaniso 4	Muenzaniso 5	Muenzaniso 6
Huwandu hwekupihwa kweUnited States mumusika wekunze wekunze kwenyika (mumadhora)	5,000,000	2 500 000	10,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000
Huwandu hwekupihwa kwemari yenyika mumusika wekunze kwenyika (X)	100 000000	100,000,000	100,000,000	50,000,000	10,000,000	500,000,000
Mwero wekutsinhana kwemari yenyika zvichienzaniswa nedhora reUS (mayuniti akajairika)	makumi maviri	40	gumi	gumi	2	100

Mabhangi

Kutsinhana kwemari kumabhanga chimwe chinhu chinokanganisa mwero wekuchinjana. Vatengi vakuru vemabhangi masevhisi ekutenga nekutengesa mari yekunze isu, vagariwo zvavo. Tinotenga mari yakaoma ye:

• nzendo kunze kwenyika;
• vachiedza kuchengetedza mari yavo kubva mukukwira kwemitengo;
• kuita mari yekuendesa kunze kwenyika.

Kutsinhana kwemabhanga ekutengeserana kwevagari vemo kwakasiyana kubva pamutengo wemusika uye kubva pachiyero chepamutemo, chinotarwa neCentral Banks yenyika dzakasiyana.
Muganho (musiyano) pakati pemitengo yekutenga nekutengesa mari ndiyo purofiti yemabhanga pakutengeserana kwekunze kwenyika. MuRussia, pfungwa ye “official rate” uye “market rate” inoenderana neUS dollar yakafanana, nekuti iyo yepamutemo US dollar rate, yakagadzwa neCentral Bank yeRussia, inotarwa pahwaro hweMICEX currency yekutengesa. zuva rakapfuura.

Nekuda kwemutengo wepamusoro wekutengesa mari nemabhangi uye mutengo wakaderera wekutenga kune vagari, zvinenge zvisingabatsiri kuitenga kuti uwane mari pakuchinja kwemitengo yekuchinjana.

Chiyero chepamutemo chekuchinjana kweiyo ruble uye chiyero chekutenga nekutengesa kwemabhangi ekutengeserana chinoratidzwa patafura.

Iyo yepamutemo yekutsinhana kwemadhora ekuUS kurwisa ruble	US dollar mutengo wekutenga nebhangi rekutengesa	US dollar mutengo wekutengesa nebhangi rekutengesa
75.4	74	77.7

Trade balance

Mari yekutengeserana ndiyo mutsauko uripo pakati pekutaura kwese kwezvinhu zvinounzwa munyika (imports) uye kutaura kwese kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika (exports). Saizvozvo, chiyero chekutengeserana chinogona kuve chakanaka (kunze kwenyika chinotungamira) kana kuti chisina kunaka (imports inotungamira). Chiyero chekutengeserana ndicho chinhu chakakosha zvikuru pakusarudza chiyero chekuchinjana kwemari yenyika. Muenzaniso wekusagadzikana kwekutengeserana kwakashata. Negative balance ye $25,000:

Export, US madhora	Import, US dollars
100,000	125 000

Munyika dzine chikamu chakakosha chekutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwema hydrocarbons kana zvimwe zvinhu, chiyero chekuchinjana chemari yenyika zvakananga zvinoenderana nechiyero chekutengeserana (musiyano pakati pekutengesa kunze uye kunze kwenyika). Kana mari inowanikwa mumari yekunze ichiwedzera, chiyero chekuchinjana chemari yenyika chinowedzerawo. Muenzaniso unokatyamadza wekutsamira kwemwero wekuchinjana kwemari yenyika pakuchinja kwemitengo yemafuta kunoitika pamusika wepasirese mwero wekutsinhana kweRuble wekuRussia uchipikisana nedhora rekuAmerica.

Pamusoro pehutano hwakanaka hwekutengeserana

Chiyero chakanaka (kana chinoshanda) chekutengeserana chinotungamira kukuwedzera kwekupihwa kwemari yekunze, kunyanya dhora reUS, mumusika wenyika. Somugumisiro, nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwekugovera kwemari yenyika, chiyero chekuchinjana chemari yenyika chinokwira. Izvi zvakanakira vatengesi nebhajeti renyika, asi zvakanakira hupfumi hwenyika pamwe nevagari vemunyika? Aihwa. Icho chokwadi ndechekuti iyo yakakura yekuchinjana kweiyo ruble (kana isu tikaongorora mamiriro ezvinhu pamuenzaniso weRussia) yakashata zvakanyanya kune ruzhinji rwevanhu venyika uye kune vanounza kunze kwenyika. Mutengo wepamusoro weRuble unosanganisira kuwedzera kwemutengo wezvinhu zvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Munyika dzakadai seRussia, uko chikamu chakakosha chezvinhu zvemazuva ose zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, zvakakosha zvikuru kuenzanisa uye kuchengetedza dhora mukati memamwe miganhu. Muenzaniso wehutano hwakanaka hwekutengeserana. Positive balance ye $50,000:

Export, US madhora	Import, US dollars
100,000	50,000

Chii chinotarisa mitengo yemari yenyika huru?

Nyika dzine mari dziri pakati pemari shanu dzakagadzikana pasi rose dzinosiyana zvakanyanya maererano nehuwandu hwehupfumi, nzvimbo uye magariro nehupfumi. Naizvozvo, chiyero chekuchinjana chemari yenyika chinokonzerwa nezvinhu zvakasiyana.

Dhora reU.S

Zvinhu zvinokanganisa dhora reUS rekuchinjana zvinogona kukamurwa kuita mapoka makuru matatu:

1. US monetary policy, inoitiswa neFederal Reserve System (FRS).
2. Zviitiko zvine chekuita nemamiriro ekunze ehupfumi nezvematongerwo enyika munyika. Zviratidzo zvakadaro, semuenzaniso, zvinosanganisira data pakukura kweGDP, maindasitiri nemitengo yevatengi, uye zvimwe zvakawanda zviratidzo zvemari. Maitiro ezvematongerwo enyika (somuenzaniso, sarudzo) kana hukuru-hukuru simba majeure mamiriro (somuenzaniso, njodzi yaSeptember 11, 2001) inobata zvakananga US dollar exchange rate.
3. Zviitiko mumutemo wekunze (mauto eUS mune dzimwe nyika dzepasi, coups munyika dzinogadzira oiri, nezvimwewo).

Euro

Mwero wekuchinjana weeuro uchipesana nemari huru dzepasi rose unokanganiswa ne:

1. Shanduko muyero yemubereko neEuropean Central Bank, i.e. chiyero icho mabhanga eEurope ekutengeserana anotendwa.
2. Mamiriro ehupfumi hweEurope – euro inokura apo hupfumi hweEU hunokura. Izvi zvinoratidzwa mukushandurwa kwezviratidziro zvemacroeconomic: kukura kweGDP, kuderera kwekushaikwa kwemabasa, kuwedzera kwema indices ekugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri uye basa rebhizinesi.
3. Iyo euro ndiyo imwe yemidziyo mikuru yemari kune vanoisa mari, pamwe chete nedhora rekuAmerica. Kusvika kumwero wakati, euro inokwikwidza kudhora. Naizvozvo, nekuchinja kwakashata mudhora, vatengesi vanotenga euro, uye zvinopesana.

GBP

Pondo yeBritish ndiyo yechitatu mari inotengeswa zvakanyanya uye inoiswa mari pasi rose. Zvinhu zvinotevera zvinokanganisa mafambiro ayo:

1. Zvemukati (inflation, chiyero chemubereko uye UK GDP, chiyero chekutengeserana).
2. Zvinhu zvekunze mitengo yezvinhu zvakasikwa (kunyanya gasi rechisikigo) uye mamiriro ekutengeserana neUS, iyo UK inonyanya kutengeserana mudiwa.

Japanese yen

Yen yeJapan imari inoshandurwa zvakasununguka, chiyero chayo chinotemerwa mumusika wekutsinhanisa kune dzimwe nyika maererano nekupa uye kudiwa. Zvinhu zvikuru zvinokanganisa chiyero chekuchinjana cheyen:

1. Kupindira kwekune dzimwe nyika kweBazi reMari yeJapan.
2. Mamiriro echiuto-wezvematongerwo enyika munyika dzeAsia-Pacific.
3. Mamiriro ezvinhu emakambani makuru eJapan (Toyota, Honda, Canon, nezvimwewo).
4. Njodzi dzinongoitika dzoga muJapan.

Swiss frank

Mari yeSwitzerland ndiyo imwe yemari yakagadzikana pasi rose. Kudiwa kwe franc kunowanzokwira panguva yehondo dzekutengeserana pakati penyika. Chiyero chekuchinjana chinokanganiswa nezvinhu zviviri zvikuru:

1. Iyo mutemo weSwitzerland Central Bank.
2. Mamiriro ezvinhu mune zvematongerwo enyika nezvematongerwo enyika. Mamiriro ezvinhu muEurozone ane kukanganisa kukuru.

Russia uye ruble

Kusiyana ne5 reserve uye yakawanda yakagadzikana mari yenyika, ruble yeRussia haigoni kuzvirumbidza nekugadzikana kwakadaro.

Pasinei nekufanotaura kwakanaka uye kufunga nezvezvinhu zvese zvinogoneka kana uchifanotaura chiyero chekuchinjana kweruble, chiitiko chezvematongerwo enyika, chemari kana chehupfumi nehupfumi chinogona kugara chichiitika muRussia, icho chichava nemhedzisiro yakaipa pakugadzikana kwenyika. mari.

Nekudaro, kana uchifanotaura, kana kuti, kufanotaura chiyero chekutsinhana kweRuble pamusoro pemari yenyika huru, munhu anogona kutarisa pane akati wandei zvinhu zvine chekuita zvakanangana neiyo ruble exchange rate. Zvinhu izvi zvinosanganisira:

1. Mitengo yezvinhu. Chekutanga, iyi mitengo yemusika wepasi rose yeRussia chaiyo gasi uye isina mafuta oiri. Nekuderera kwemitengo yemafuta, kuitira kubhadhara kuperevedza kwemari yebhajeti, Central Bank yeRussia inomanikidzwa kutevera mutemo wekuderedza ruble.
2. Foreign policy zvinhu. Zvirango zvakatemerwa neAmerica neEuropean Union zvine kukanganisa zvakanyanya pamutengo wemari yeRuble.
3. zvinhu zvezvematongerwo enyika zvemukati. Kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika, kusava nechokwadi nezveramangwana pakati pevagari vemo, dambudziko rekuvimba mubhangi renyika rinokonzera kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwekutengwa kwemari yekunze uye kuparara kweruble.
4. Kubhadhara nemakambani eRussia kune vakweretesi vekunze kana kugoverwa kwemari. Kukonzera kuwedzera kwekudiwa kwemari yekunze.
5. Kutengwa nevekunze vanoisa mari yeRussian Federal Loan Bonds inoitwa mumadhora ekuUS.

Equilibrium exchange rate

Mukugadzirisa mutengo wechigadzirwa, nzira mbiri dzakapesana dzinobonderana: basa remutengesi nderekutengesa zvinodhura sezvinobvira, basa remutengi nderekutenga zvakachipa sezvinobvira. Panguva iyo hukuru hwekugovera uye kudiwa kwakaenzana, mutengo wakaenzana uchasvikwa, kureva, mutengo wakadaro apo vatengesi havazove vasina zvinhu kana masevhisi asina kutengeswa, uye vatengi vachashandisa mari yese yemari pakutenga zvinhu zvinodiwa (sevhisi). ) Mumusika wekutsinhanisa kune dzimwe nyika, zvinokwanisikawo kugadzira chiyero chekuchinjana chekuenzanisa. Iyi ndiyo chiyero chemari yenyika, inotarirwa pa zero yekutengeserana, kureva, apo kukosha kwekutengesa kunze uye kunze kwenyika kunoenzana. Saizvozvo, huwandu hwekugovera uye kudiwa mumusika wekuchinjana kune dzimwe nyika huchasvika pakuenzana kwayo.

Ikozvino macroeconomic zviratidzo muRussia uye hukama hwavo neiyo ruble exchange rate

Kutsamira kwehupfumi hweRussia pakutengesa kunze kwemahydrocarbons ndeimwe yematambudziko akakosha ehupfumi hweRussia hwazvino. Mumamiriro ezvinhu ekuderera kwekuda kweRussia simba zviwanikwa, kuiswa kwezvirango kumakambani eRussia uye mitengo inodonha padhiramu remafuta, oiri uye gasi kutsamira kwawedzera.

Chikamu chemari yemafuta uye gasi mubhajheji yeRussia muhafu yekutanga ye2020 yaingova 29% chete. Ichi ndicho chinyorwa chinodonha mumari kubva kutengeswa kwemafuta uye gasi mumakore makumi maviri apfuura, apo chikamu chemari iyi bhajeti reRussia raibva pa36% kusvika 51%.

Zvinoenderana nevimbiso yeBazi reMari yeRussian Federation, Russia inogona kugara pamitengo yemafuta akadaro kwemamwe makore akati wandei nekuda kwekuunganidzwa kwemari. Ruponeso kubva mumamiriro azvino ndiko kudzikira zvishoma nezvishoma (kuderera) kweRuble padhora reUS nedzimwe mari dzepasirese. Kubva muna Ndira 1, 2020, mwero wekutsinhana kweRuble uchipesana nedhora rekuAmerica wadonha kubva pamakumi matanhatu nerimwe rubles kusvika pamakumi manomwe nemashanu. Zviri pachena, mumamiriro ezvinhu emazuva ano emitengo yakaderera yemafuta, kudonha kweruble kuchaenderera mberi: iyi ndiyo imwe yenzira dzekubhadhara kuderera kwechikamu chemari yebhajheji yeRussia.

Forecasting exchange rates

Kufanotaura kwemitengo yekuchinjana chaiko ibasa rakaoma. Chiyero chekutsinhana chinokonzerwa nezvinhu zvakawanda zvakasiyana-siyana – zvehupfumi, zvemari, zvematongerwo enyika, zvemagariro evanhu. Nekudaro, kune 3 nzira huru dzekuongorora mafambiro emitengo yekutsinhana:

• masvomhu – zvichibva pakushandiswa kwemasvomhu mhando;
• nyanzvi – zvichibva pakuongorora uye mhedziso dzenyanzvi muindasitiri;
• yakaoma – kusanganisa nzira mbiri.

central bank

Chishandiso chekuchengetedza kugadzikana kwemari nemitengo, iyo inoshanda munyika zhinji zvisinei nenyika, ibhengi repakati. Bhizinesi repakati munyika dzakasiyana rinogona kuva nemazita akasiyana (somuenzaniso, muUnited States, mabasa aya anoitwa neFederal Reserve System). Mabhanga eCentral ane mune yavo arsenal nzira dzakasiyana dzekupesvedzera chiyero chekuchinjana: kupindira kwemari yekunze, kuburitsa mari uye zvimwe zvakawanda.

Kupindira kwemari

Kupindira kwekune dzimwe nyika inzira yekushandura shanduko yemari yenyika inoshandiswa neCentral Bank. Zvichienderana nezvinangwa zveCentral Bank, kupindira kunoguma nekuderera kwemari yenyika maererano nemari huru yenyika, kana kuwedzera kwayo.

Kupindira kunoitika kuburikidza nekushanda kunoshandiswa kwemari yekunze mumusika wekutsinhanisa kune dzimwe nyika.

Kuderedza inflation uye kuderera kwemitengo yezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, Central Bank iri kutevera mutemo wekusimbisa mari yenyika (depreciate). Nekuderera (kuwedzerwa kwehuwandu hwekuchinjana) kwemari, reverse process inoitika, asi panguva imwecheteyo, mari yevatengesi inokura, iyo inonyanya kukosha kune hupfumi hunotengeswa kunze kwenyika.

Nyaya yemari

Bhanga guru renyika rinogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya kushandiswa kwemari yenyika kuburikidza nenyaya yemari. Kuburitsa mari ndiko kuburitswa mukutenderera kweisina-cash (kunyanya) uye mari yemari.

Kuburitswa kwemari kusingawanzo kunoitwa nekukweretesa kumabhangi ekutengesa, mari – nekutanga “printing press”.

MuRussia, mari yekune dzimwe nyika inotorwa neCentral Bank inounganidzwa mugoridhe uye mari yekunze uye inoshandiswa kugadzirisa ruble exchange rate. Kana zvakakosha kuwedzera kukosha kweRuble kurwisa US dollar, Central Bank inotanga kushingaira kutengesa madhora akaunganidzwa mumatura.

Discount rate (refinancing rate)

The refinancing rate ndiyo mubereko uyo Central Bank inokweretesa kumabhanga ekutengesa. Mari yekuchinjana inodzorwa neCentral Bank, kusanganisira kushandisa refinancing rate. Nekusimudza kana kudzikisa mutengo wekuderedzwa, Central Bank inosarudza huwandu hwemari yemahara kubva kumabhangi, iyo inobata zvakananga huwandu hwekupihwa kwemari yenyika mumusika wekunze.

Mabasa ane chekuita nezvisungo zvechikwereti chenyika

Ruble exchange rate inopesvedzerwa nemusika wechikwereti chenyika. Vagadziri vemari, kusanganisira mabhanga akazvimirira, vanoongorora uye enzanisa kukwezva kwekudyara kwemari yekunze uye zvisungo zvechikwereti chehurumende, vachisarudza chishandiso chekudyara chine pundutso. Muchokwadi, aya maviri ekudyara zviridzwa anokwikwidza: kana mwero wekudzoka pane zvisungo zvechikwereti zvehurumende zvadzikira, vatengesi vanopinda mumari yekunze, uye zvinopesana.

Kukanganisa kwemari yedhijitari pamari yenyika

Digital money imari inoshandiswa mumari yenyika uye inochengetwa chete pamagetsi. Mienzaniso yemari yedhijitari ndeyeWebmoney, PayPal, Yandex mari, uye mamwe masystem ekubhadhara emagetsi. Virtual mari – cryptocurrencies – inogona kuiswa sechikamu chakasiyana. Cryptocurrencies inopihwa chete paInternet uye haina hukama nehurongwa hwemari yenyika, nekuti inosarudzwa mune mamwe mayuniti – bitcoins. Iyo yedhijitari mari system haina kukosha kwakakosha pachiyero chekuchinjana.

Kufurira zvimwe zvinhu

Chiyero chekuchinjana chinokonzerwa nezviitiko zvepfungwa, simba majeure uye njodzi dzakasiyana-siyana. Mafungiro epfungwa anosanganisira kuvimba kwevanhu mune imwe mari. Kuwedzera kwekudiwa kweimwe mari yekunze kunoratidza kushayikwa kwechivimbo mumari yenyika. Muhupfumi hwemazuva ano hwepasirese, chiyero chekuchinjana chinopesvedzerwa nezvakawanda zvakasiyana zvinhu: zvehupfumi, zvemari, zvemagariro nezvematongerwo enyika nezvimwe zvakawanda. Pamwe chete, zvinhu izvi zvinotarisa kukosha kwemari yenyika. Kutsinhana kwemari yenyika, kunyanya ruble yeRussia, inoratidzwa zvakananga mumhando uye mararamiro emunhu wese anogara muRussia.