Countertrend strategy mu malonda – momwe mungagulitsire motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika

Countertrend mu malonda ndi mawonekedwe a malonda motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika. Njira zambiri zamalonda zimadalira zomwe zikuchitika. Komabe, palibe zambiri zokhudza njira countertrend mu malonda. M’nkhaniyi, tikambirana zamalonda motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika pamlingo wamalingaliro, komanso njira zomwe zikugwiritsidwa ntchito pamsika.

Tanthauzo la malonda a countertrend

Countertrend trading ndi njira yopangira malonda komwe wogulitsa amafuna kupindula ndi kayendetsedwe ka mtengo komwe kumatsutsana ndi zomwe zilipo. Amalonda omwe akugwira ntchito motsutsana ndi chikhalidwechi akuyesera kuti agwire mtengo wamtengo wapatali wanthawi yochepa kapena kusintha kwathunthu. Nthawi zambiri, njira zamalonda zotsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika zimakhala ndi nthawi yayitali – malowa amakhala kuyambira masiku angapo mpaka masabata angapo. Koma iyi si lamulo la ironclad: ngakhale kuti si ochuluka, palinso amalonda anthawi yochepa omwe ali ndi njira zotsutsana ndi zomwe amapanga malonda
intraday.. Kawirikawiri, njira zozikidwa pa njirayi ndizoyenera nthawi iliyonse. Kugulitsa motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika ndizosiyana ndi kutsatira zomwe zikuchitika. Ngakhale kuti malonda amtunduwu amatanthawuza kupeza mayendedwe othamanga kwambiri ndikuyenda ndi zomwe zikuchitika kwautali momwe mungathere, kalembedwe ka countertrend kumafuna kupeza zosintha. Mitundu yonse iwiri yamalonda imatha kukhala yopindulitsa pamisika yoyenera komanso ikagwirizana ndi psychology yamunthu – kwa amalonda ena, njira imodzi ingakhale yabwino kuposa ina, chifukwa cha umunthu.

Tanthauzo. Amalonda amakono amafuna kuti azindikire ndi kutenga nawo mbali pakuyenda kwamitengo mopupuluma, pamene amalonda amalonda akufunafuna kupeza mfundo zowonongeka kuti apeze mwayi wokonza mitengo.

Ubwino wa countertrend malonda njira

Kugulitsa kosiyanako nthawi zina kumakhala kovutirapo, koma pali zabwino zina pakugulitsa anthu ambiri nthawi ndi nthawi, monga tafotokozera pansipa. Phindu la malonda amodzi lingakhale lalikulu kuposa njira ina iliyonse. Njira zotsatizanazi zimakonda kupereka chiopsezo chochepa komanso mphotho zochepa. Kutsutsana, kumbali ina, nthawi zonse kumakhala chiopsezo chachikulu, chomwe chimalipidwa ndi phindu lalikulu. Chotsatira chake, wochita malonda wotere adzakhala ndi zochepetsera zochepa kwambiri. Kuphatikiza apo, zosokoneza izi zikachitika, mutha kutuluka nthawi zotayika izi mwachangu kuposa wina aliyense pamsika. Komanso kuchokera ku mabonasi tikuwona:

1. Nthawi zazifupi pamalo . Countertrading imagwira ntchito pamaudindo autali uliwonse, ndipo ndiyoyenera kwambiri pazanthawi kochepa kuposa kuchita malonda wamba. Kukhala ndi maudindo kwa nthawi yochepa ndi koyenera kwa iwo omwe amakonda kutaya chidwi.
2. Mipata yambiri yoti muzindikire mwayi wanu . Chifukwa cha nthawi zazifupi zomwe tatchulazi, ochita malonda amapindula ndi njira zawo pamsika nthawi zambiri kuposa amalonda a nthawi yayitali. Si zachilendo kuti machitidwe a malonda a countertrend apange malonda 75 kapena kuposerapo pachaka pa chida china. Izi sizingakhale zachilendo kwa njira zambiri zotengera njira.
3. Sikoyenera kulosera khalidwe lamtengo wapatali la nthawi yayitali . Osewera motsutsana ndi msika amatha kutsegula ndikutseka malo mwachangu. Sayenera kulosera mtengo kwa nthawi yaitali. M’malo mwake, ali ndi kuthekera koyang’ana pakusintha kwamitengo kwakanthawi kochepa mpaka pakati, kukhala osinthika ndikugulitsa mbali zonse zamsika. Ndikokwanira kungoyerekeza kusinthika kwamtengo kumodzi kokha.

Kuipa kwa malonda motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika

Tsopano popeza muli ndi lingaliro lazabwino zina za kalembedwe ka countertrend, tiyeneranso kutchula zina mwazovuta za njirayi. Kwa amalonda ambiri, makamaka omwe ali atsopano ku malonda kapena osadziwa, ndibwino kuti mugulitse ndi zomwe zikuchitika, ndipo chifukwa chake:

1. Mukusemphana ndi kayendedwe kachilengedwe ka msika . M’misika, monga m’moyo, nthawi zonse zimakhala zosavuta kutsatira njira yochepetsera kukana. Chizoloŵezi chikayamba kuyenda, chimangokhalira kulimbikira – chifukwa choyesera kutsutsana ndi izi, zingathe (ndipo) zidzatsogolera kutayika kwa malonda.
2. Zomwe zikuchitika pamsika ndizosavuta kuziwona kuposa ma pivot point . Kusintha kwa msika kungathe kuchitika mofulumira kwambiri. Kuthamanga kotero kuti mulibe nthawi yochitapo kanthu. Zochita, kumbali ina, ndizosavuta kuzindikira ndipo nthawi zambiri zimapitilira kwa nthawi yayitali – kotero ngati wotsutsa, mudzakhala mukusewera ndi anthu omwe ali ndi mwayi patsogolo.
3. Ndizovuta m’malingaliro kukhala wotsutsa – palibe kupsinjika kwakukulu pakugulitsa kuposa kuchita malonda ndi aliyense. Muyenera kutsegula malo motsutsana ndi unyinji ndi msika. Ngakhale zitha kulimbikitsa kudzikonda kwanu, zitha kukhala zowopsa ndikuvulaza akaunti yanu yamalonda komanso psyche yanu mukalakwitsa.
4. Simungapange phindu lalikulu – simuyenera kuyembekezera kugulitsa kopindulitsa nthawi zonse, kuyembekezera zabwino zazikulu zomwe sizipezeka kubanki. Simupeza phindu pafupipafupi, mudzakhala ndi zokwera komanso zotsika – ndiye gwero la njira iyi.

Njira zabwino zochitira malonda motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika

Ngakhale titakhala ndi chidaliro chotani pakuwerengera kwathu kwamalonda, sitiyenera kuiwala kuti “misika imatha kukhala yopanda nzeru kwa nthawi yayitali kuposa momwe titha kusungunulira.” Tiyeni tikambirane zina mwazabwino kwambiri zokhudzana ndi malonda motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika pamsika. Malangizo ofunikirawa adzakuthandizani chimodzimodzi ngati mukugulitsa FX, zam’tsogolo kapena masheya.

Osachita malonda motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika panthawi yakusintha kwamitengo.

Nthawi iliyonse mtengo ukuyenda modabwitsa, makamaka panthawi yokwera kwambiri kapena kutsika kwamphamvu komwe kumafanana ndi kusuntha kwamitengo yanjira imodzi kapena, choyipa, kusuntha kwamitengo, ndibwino kuti musachite nawo zotsutsana. Muyenera kukhala pambali ndikudikirira mpaka kusakhazikika kwa msika kuchepe.

Nthawi zonse muzisiya kutayika pamsika

Ochita malonda ena amakonda kukhala ndi zomwe zimatchedwa kuti zamisala pamsika m’malo mosiya kutayika. Kuyimitsa maganizo ndi mtengo umene wogulitsa
amakhulupirira kuti adzatseka malo ngati malonda akutsutsana nawo. Kuyimitsa kwenikweni kutayika, kumbali ina, kumayikidwa pamsika ndikuyambitsa zokha pamene mlingo wina wafika. Otsatsa malonda ayenera nthawi zonse kukhala ndi mtundu woterewu pamsika, chifukwa njira yomwe ikusewera motsutsana ndi msika imakhala pachiwopsezo cha kusuntha kwadzidzidzi kwamitengo.

Osawonjeza ku malo osapindulitsa kale

Ena otsutsa amakonda kuonjezera malo awo pamene mitengo ikutsutsana nawo. Ngakhale njira iyi ingagwire ntchito kwa anthu odziwa zambiri, odziletsa kwambiri, ambiri amatha kuswa banki mwachangu. Ndikovuta kutchula poyambira, ndipo nthawi zambiri mumalakwitsa, kuwonjezereka kwapang’onopang’ono kumakuyikani m’malo osamasuka.

Dikirani chitsimikiziro musanachite motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika

Onjezani choyambitsa china (chotengera, mwachitsanzo, pachizindikiro) ku njira yanu yolumikizirana, yomwe ingakhale yovomerezeka kuti mulowe pamsika. Pomwe kuyembekezera chitsimikiziro chotere nthawi zina kumatha kuchepetsa chiwopsezo cha chiwopsezo cha malonda, ngati chikugwiritsidwa ntchito moyenera, chidzakulitsa chiwongola dzanja chanu chonse. Izi ndizowona makamaka pakugulitsa malonda, komwe ngakhale kulakwitsa pang’ono kungayambitse kutayika.

Osayika pachiwopsezo choposa 2% pamalonda

Kupambana kwa njira iliyonse yamalonda kumadalira kwambiri kayendetsedwe ka ngozi koyenera komanso kokonzekera bwino. Gawo limodzi loyang’anira zoopsa zomwe amalonda amayenera kusamala nazo kwambiri ndikukulitsa malo. Maudindo ang’onoang’ono nthawi zambiri amabweretsa chiwongola dzanja chochepa, pomwe maudindo omwe amakhala ochulukirapo amatha kuwononga kwambiri. Ogulitsa malonda motsutsana ndi msika sayenera kukhala pachiwopsezo choposa 2% ya mphika.

Njira yogulitsa motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika

Tsopano popeza muli ndi lingaliro la momwe malonda awa amawonekera, tiyeni tilimbitse chidziwitso chathu ndikupanga njira yamalonda. Tidzagwiritsa ntchito zizindikiro zamakono. M’misika yazachuma, nthawi zambiri mumawona mitengo itatu yosiyana ikukankhira njira yomwe imasokonezedwa ndi kukonza kuwiri kwakung’ono. Iwo omwe amadziwa Dow Theory kapena Elliott Wave Theory adzazindikira mawonekedwe ake. Ngati simukudziwa mfundo za Elliott Wave Principle, mutha kugwiritsabe ntchito njirayi.
Msika ukamaliza kukankhira katatu kotsata zomwe zikuchitika, mitengo nthawi zambiri imabwerera m’mbuyo ndikuyamba kukonza. Podziwa izi, tidzayesa kudziwa momwe mitengo yamitengo yomwe idamalizitsira kukankhira kwachitatu uku – mwina mmwamba (mumawu okwera) kapena pansi (panjira yotsika). Tidzagwiritsa ntchito chizindikiro cha RSI kuyang’ana zosiyana – tikangowona kukankhira kwachitatu, tidzafunika kugwira kusiyana pakati pa kukankhira kwachiwiri ndi kwachitatu ndi chizindikiro cha RSI. Ngati mtengo ndi chizindikiro cha RSI chikusiyana (kusiyana kwachitika), ndipo panthawi imodzimodziyo tili ndi kukwera mtengo kwa 3, tikuyembekeza kusinthika mwamsanga ndikutsutsana ndi msika. https://articles.opexflow.com/analysis-methods-and-tools/indikator-rsi.htm Kunena zachindunji, nayi malamulo olowera pamalo aatali:

1. Tchaticho chiyenera kusonyeza ndondomeko ya masitepe, kusonyeza momveka bwino kukankhira mitengo itatu.
2. Pali kusiyana ngati mujambula mzere pakati pa kugwedezeka kwa kugwedeza kwachiwiri ndi kwachitatu ndi mzere wolumikiza zapansi zomwezo pa tchati cha RSI.

Jambulani mzere wa bearish pa mfundo iyi, kulumikiza nsonga zowongolera mukuyenda kwamtengo “kudumpha”.

1. Dongosolo logulira lolowera limayikidwa pamtengo wotuluka pamzerewu.
2. Lamulo loyimitsa loyimitsa liyenera kuyikidwa pansi pa kandulo musanayambe kandulo.

Malamulo olowa m’malo ochepa amawonetsedwa. Countertrend mu malonda, njira zogulitsa motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika: https://youtu.be/8UN7iDmswOA

Kupanga malonda

Chitsanzo china cha malonda otsutsana ndi anthu omwe ali ndi chidziwitso ndi malonda opanga msika. Wogulitsa wotereyu amapanga malonda kumbali zonse ziwiri. Msika ukayamba kusuntha mwachangu mbali imodzi, MM amamanga malo motsutsana ndi msika, kusonkhanitsa kutayika pa malo. Msika wabwino wa MM ndi womwe umayima. Pankhaniyi, ena amagula pamtengo wa MM, kapena amagulitsa pamtengo wake. Ndipo choyipa kwambiri kwa wopanga msika ndi pamene msika ukuyenda mbali imodzi. Kuthekera kwa kukhazikika kwanthawi yayitali ndikwambiri, kotero opanga misika amapanga mabizinesi pamalonda apamwamba kwambiri. Pofika pano, muyenera kukhala ndi lingaliro la njira yosinthira pakugulitsa komanso momwe imasiyanirana ndi malonda amasiku ano. Ngakhale kusuntha motsutsana ndi chikhalidwe chachikulu kungakhale kopindulitsa kwambiri, njira iyi si ya oyamba kumene. Ngakhale amalonda odziwa zambiri ayenera kutenga nthawi kuti aphunzire zizindikiro zosiyanasiyana za kusinthika kwa msika komwe kukubwera. Osewera ambiri opambana amagwiritsa ntchito njira ziwiri nthawi imodzi – amagulitsa zonse ndi zomwe zikuchitika komanso zotsutsana nazo, kutengera momwe zinthu ziliri.