Iqhinga le-Countertrend ekurhwebeni – indlela yokurhweba ngokuchasene nomkhwa

I-Countertrend kurhwebo kunye neempawu zokurhweba ngokuchasene nentsingiselo. Uninzi lweendlela zokurhweba zixhomekeke kwindlela. Nangona kunjalo, akukho lwazi oluninzi malunga nendlela ye-countertrend ekurhwebeni. Kweli nqaku, siza kuxoxa ngokurhweba ngokuchasene nomkhwa kwinqanaba lethiyori, kunye nezicwangciso ezikhoyo zokuphumeza kwimarike.

Inkcazo ye-countertrend trading

I-Countertrend yorhwebo yindlela yokurhweba apho umrhwebi efuna ukufumana inzuzo kwiintshukumo zamaxabiso ezichasene nomkhwa okhoyo. Abarhwebi abasebenza ngokuchasene nomkhwa bazama ukubamba i-pullback yexabiso lexesha elifutshane okanye ukuguqulwa okupheleleyo. Ngokuqhelekileyo, izicwangciso zokurhweba ngokuchasene nomkhwa zinexesha eliphakathi – isikhundla sibanjwe ukusuka kwiintsuku ezininzi ukuya kwiiveki ezininzi. Kodwa lo ayisiwo umthetho we-ironclad: nangona bengebaninzi kangako, kukho nabarhwebi bexeshana elifutshane abanezicwangciso ezichasene ne-counter-trend abenza
izivumelwano nge- intraday.. Ngokubanzi, izicwangciso ezisekelwe kule ndlela zifanelekile naliphi na ixesha. Ukurhweba ngokuchasene nentsingiselo kuchasene nokulandela umkhwa. Ngelixa urhwebo lwentsingiselo luthetha ukubamba ugqabhuko lwesantya kwaye emva koko uhambe nomkhwa ixesha elide, isitayile se-countertrend sifuna ukufumana amanqaku anokubakho okubuyisela umva. Zombini iindlela zokurhweba zinokuba nenzuzo kwiimeko ezifanelekileyo zemarike kwaye xa zihambelana neengqondo zomntu – kwabanye abarhwebi, enye indlela inokuba ngcono kunezinye, ngenxa yeempawu zobuntu.

Ingcaciso. Abarhwebi be-Trend bafuna ukufumanisa kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba kwiintshukumo zexabiso ezikhawulezayo, ngelixa abarhwebi be-counter befuna ukufumana amanqaku abalulekileyo okubuyisela umva ukuze bathathe inzuzo kwiintshukumo zexabiso lokulungisa.

Izibonelelo zendlela yokuthengisa i-countertrend

Indlela yokurhweba echaseneyo ngamanye amaxesha inokukhohlisa, kodwa kukho izibonelelo ezithile zokurhweba ngokuchasene nesihlwele ngamanye amaxesha, njengoko kuchaziwe ngezantsi. Inzuzo evela kurhwebo olunye inokuba nkulu kunayo nayiphi na enye indlela. Iindlela zokulandela iindlela zikholisa ukunika umngcipheko ophantsi kunye nemivuzo ephantsi ngokunjalo. I-Countertrading, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ihlala ingumngcipheko omkhulu, ovuzwa ngeenzuzo ezinkulu. Ngenxa yoko, umrhwebi onjalo uya kuba ne-drawdowns ephantsi. Ukongeza, xa oku kutsalwa kusenzeka, unokuphuma ngamaxesha okulahleka ngokukhawuleza kunaye nawuphi na omnye umntu emarikeni. Kwaye kwakhona kwiibhonasi siqaphela:

1. Amaxesha amafutshane kwindawo . I-Countertrading iyasebenza kwizikhundla zazo naziphi na ubude, kwaye ifaneleke kakhulu kwizikhundla zexesha elifutshane kunorhwebo oluqhelekileyo. Ukubamba izikhundla ixesha elifutshane ngokwentelekiso kufanelekile kwabo badla ngokulahlekelwa kukugxila.
2. Amathuba amaninzi okuqonda inzuzo yakho . Ngenxa yexesha elifutshane lokubamba esisandula ukulikhankanya, abarhwebi be-countertrend baxhamla kwisicwangciso sabo kwimarike rhoqo kunabathengisi bexesha elide. Akuqhelekanga kwiinkqubo zokurhweba nge-countertrend ukuvelisa i-75 okanye ngaphezulu kwezorhwebo ngonyaka kwisixhobo esithile. Oku kuya kuba yinto eqhelekileyo kuninzi lwezicwangciso ezisekelwe kwindlela.
3. Akuyimfuneko ukuqikelela ukuziphatha kwexabiso lexesha elide . Abadlali abachasene nemarike banokuvula ngokukhawuleza kwaye bavale izikhundla. Akuyomfuneko ukuba baqikelele ixabiso ixesha elide. Endaweni yoko, banakho ukugxila ekuguqukeni kwexesha elifutshane ukuya kweliphakathi, babe bhetyebhetye kwaye bathengise macala omabini emarike. Kwanele nje ukuthelekelela ukuguqulwa kwexabiso elinye.

Iingxaki zokurhweba ngokuchasene nentsingiselo

Ngoku ekubeni unombono wezinye iingenelo zesitayile se-countertrend, kufuneka sikhankanye ezinye zezinto ezingeloncedo zale ndlela. Kuninzi lwabarhwebi, ngakumbi abo baqala ukurhweba okanye abanamava, kungcono kakhulu ukurhweba kunye nomkhwa kuqala, kwaye nasi isizathu:

1. Uhamba ngokuchasene nendlela yendalo yemarike . Kwiimarike, njengobomi, kusoloko kulula ukulandela indlela yokuchasana okuncinci. Xa umkhwa ushukuma, udla ngokuzingisa – ngenxa yokuzama ukuchasana nalo mkhwa, unako (kwaye uya) kukhokelela kuthotho olupheleleyo lokulahleka kwezorhwebo.
2. Iintsingiselo zemarike kulula kakhulu ukuzibona kuneendawo zepivot . Amanqaku okuguqula kwiimarike angenzeka ngokukhawuleza. Ngokukhawuleza kangangokuba ungabinalo ixesha lokusabela. Iindlela, kwelinye icala, zilula kakhulu ukuzibona kwaye zihlala zihlala ixesha elide – ke njengomthengisi, uya kudlala ngokuchasene nabantu abanenzuzo ngaphambili.
3. Kunzima ngokwasengqondweni ukuba ngumchasi -akukho mvakalelo yoxinzelelo olukhulu ekurhwebeni kunokuthengisa ngokuchasene nomntu wonke. Kuya kufuneka uvule indawo ngokuchasene nesihlwele kunye nemarike. Ngelixa ngokuqinisekileyo inokunyusa i-ego yakho, inokuba yingozi kwaye yenzakalise zombini iakhawunti yakho yokurhweba kunye nengqondo yakho xa uyiphatha kakubi.
4. Awuyi kufane wenze inzuzo enkulu – akufanele ulindele urhwebo olunengeniso rhoqo, lindela iipluses ezinkulu ezinqabileyo ebhankini. Awuyi kufumana inzuzo ephakathi rhoqo, uya kuba nokuphezulu kunye nokuhla – oko kungundoqo kule ndlela.

Iindlela ezilungileyo zokurhweba ngokuchasene nentsingiselo

Kungakhathaliseki ukuba sinokuzithemba kangakanani kuqikelelo lwethu lokurhweba, akufanele silibale ukuba “iimarike zinokuhlala zingenangqiqo ixesha elide kunokuba singakwazi ukuhlala sixazulule.” Makhe sixoxe ngezinye zezona ndlela zingcono zokusebenza ezinxulumene norhwebo ngokuchasene nentsingiselo kwimarike. Ezi zikhokelo ezisisiseko ziya kuba luncedo ngokulinganayo nokuba uthengisa iFX, ikamva okanye i-stocks.

Musa ukurhweba ngokuchasene nentsingiselo ngexesha lokuhamba kwexabiso le-parabolic.

Naliphi na ixesha ixabiso liziphatha ngokungaqhelekanga, ngakumbi ngexesha lokunyuka okuqinileyo okanye ukuhla okunamandla okufana nokuhamba kwexabiso lendlela enye okanye, okubi nakakhulu, ixabiso le-parabolic liyahamba, kungcono ukungazibandakanyi kwi-countertrends. Kufuneka uhlale ecaleni kwaye ulinde de ukuguquguquka kweemarike kuncipha.

Soloko unelahleko yokuyeka kwimarike

Abanye abarhwebi bakhetha ukuba nezinto ezibizwa ngokuba zizithintelo zengqondo kwiimarike kunokuyeka ilahleko. Ukumisa ngengqondo kubaluleke kakhulu ixabiso apho umrhwebi
akholelwa ukuba baya kuvala isikhundla ukuba urhwebo luhamba ngokuchasene nabo. Ukulahlekelwa kwangempela kokuyeka, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufakwe kwimarike kwaye kuqhutywe ngokuzenzekelayo xa inqanaba elithile lifinyelelwe. Countertraders kufuneka basoloko kuphela olu hlobo yokumisa kwimarike, kuba eyona ndlela yokudlala ngokuchasene emarikeni isesichengeni kakhulu iintshukumo ixabiso ngesiquphe elibi.

Musa ukongeza kwindawo esele ingenangeniso

Abanye abachasi badla ngokunyusa izikhundla zabo xa amaxabiso ehambela ngokuchasene nabo. Ngelixa le ndlela yokusebenzela inokusebenzela abantu abanamava kakhulu, abantu abaqeqesheke kakhulu, uninzi luya kuqhekeza ngokukhawuleza ibhanki. Kunzima ukukhomba indawo enokwenzeka ye-pivot, kwaye uya kuhlala ungalunganga, ukonyuka okungxamisekileyo kwindawo ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kukubeka kwindawo engathandekiyo.

Lindela isiqinisekiso phambi kokuba uhambe ngokuchasene nentsingiselo

Yongeza i-trigger (esekelwe, umzekelo, kwisalathisi) kwisicwangciso sakho se-countertrend, ukusebenza kwayo kuya kuba yimfuneko yokungena kwimarike. Ngelixa ulinde ukuqinisekiswa okunjalo ngamanye amaxesha kunokunciphisa umvuzo-kumngcipheko wokurhweba, ukuba usetyenziswe ngokuchanekileyo, kuya kwandisa izinga lakho lokuwina. Oku kuyinyani ngakumbi kwi-counter trading, apho nokuba nokubala okuncinci kunokukhokelela kwisiphumo esilahlekileyo.

Musa ukubeka emngciphekweni ngaphezu kwe-2% kurhwebo

Impumelelo yaso nasiphi na isicwangciso sokurhweba ubukhulu becala ixhomekeke kulawulo lwengozi olufanelekileyo nolucwangcisiweyo. Enye indawo yolawulo lomngcipheko ekufuneka abarhwebi banike ingqwalasela eyodwa kukulinganisa indawo. Izikhundla ezincinci kakhulu zihlala zikhokelela kumvuzo ophantsi wenzala, ngelixa izikhundla ezikhulu kakhulu zinokukhokelela kumonakalo onokuthi ube yintlekele. Abarhwebi abarhweba ngokuchasene nemarike kufuneka babeke umngcipheko ngaphezu kwe-2% yembiza.

Isicwangciso sokurhweba ngokuchasene nomkhwa

Ngoku ekubeni unombono wokuba le ndlela yokuthengisa ijongeka njani, masiqinise ulwazi lwethu kwaye siphuhlise isicwangciso sokurhweba. Siza kusebenzisa izalathisi zobugcisa. Kwiimarike zemali, uya kuhlala ubona ukutyhala kwamaxabiso amathathu ahlukeneyo kwicala lendlela ephazanyiswe zilungiso ezimbini ezincinci. Abo baqhelene neDow Theory okanye i-Elliott Wave Theory baya kuqaphela isakhiwo sayo sempembelelo. Ukuba awuqhelananga neengqikelelo ze-Elliott Wave Principle, usengayisebenzisa le ndlela.
Nje ukuba imakethi igqibezele ezi zityhuku zithathu kwicala lendlela, amaxabiso ahlala ebuyela umva kwaye aqale ukulungisa. Ukwazi oku, siya kuzama ukumisela iintsingiselo zexabiso ezigqibe olu tyhala lwesithathu – nokuba phezulu (kwimeko ye-uptrend) okanye ezantsi (kwi-downtrend). Siza kusebenzisa isalathisi se-RSI ukujonga iyantlukwano-kamsinyane nje ukuba sibona ukutyhala okwesithathu, kuya kufuneka sibambe iyantlukwano phakathi kwe-push yesibini neyesithathu kunye nesalathisi se-RSI. Ukuba ixabiso kunye nesalathisi se-RSI siyahlukana (ukwahlukana kwenzekile), kwaye ngelo xesha sele sinexabiso eli-3 lokunyusa, silindele ukuguqulwa ngokukhawuleza kwaye sihambe ngokuchasene neemarike. https://articles.opexflow.com/analysis-methods-and-tools/inikator-rsi.htm Ukucacisa, nantsi imigaqo yokungena kwindawo ende:

1. Itshathi kufuneka ibonise isakhiwo sesinyathelo, esibonisa ngokucacileyo ukutyhala kwamaxabiso amathathu ahlukeneyo.
2. Kukho ukuhlukana ukuba udweba umgca phakathi kwe-swing lows yesibini kunye neyesithathu kunye nomgca odibanisa amazantsi afanayo kwitshathi yesalathisi se-RSI.

Zoba i-bearish trend line kule ndawo, ukudibanisa iincopho zokulungisa kwi-bearish “jump” yexabiso lokuhamba.

1. Umyalelo wokuthenga wokungena ubekwe kwixabiso lokuqhawula lo mgca wendlela.
2. Umyalelo wokulahlekelwa kokuyeka kufuneka ubekwe phantsi kwekhandlela ngaphambi kwekhandlela lokuqhawula.

Imigaqo yokungena kwisithuba esifutshane ibonakaliswe. I-Countertrend kurhwebo, isicwangciso sokurhweba ngokuchasene nendlela: https://youtu.be/8UN7iDmswOA

Ukuthengisa

Omnye umzekelo wokurhweba kwe-counter-trend kubathathi-nxaxheba botshintshiselwano abanamava kukurhweba kwabenzi beemarike. Umrhwebi onjalo wenza izivumelwano kumacala omabini. Xa imarike iqala ukuhamba ngenkuthalo kwicala elinye, i-MM yakha isikhundla ngokuchasene nokuhamba kweemarike, iqokelela ilahleko kwindawo. Imarike efanelekileyo ye-MM yenye emi ngxi. Kule meko, abanye bathenga ngexabiso le-MM, okanye bathengise ngexabiso layo. Kwaye eyona nto imbi kakhulu kumenzi wemarike kuxa imarike ihamba kwicala elinye. Ukubakho kwendlela ezinzileyo kumaxesha amisiweyo amakhulu, ngoko ke abenzi borhwebo benza izivumelwano kwinqwelo-moya yorhwebo olunesantya esiphezulu. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, kuya kufuneka ube nombono wendlela ebuyela umva ekurhwebeni kunye nokuba yahluke njani kurhwebo lwesiqhelo. Nangona ukuhambela ngokuchasene neyona ndlela iphambili kunokuba nenzuzo kakhulu, le ndlela ayiyoyabaqalayo. Nabarhwebi abanamava kufuneka bathathe ixesha lokufunda ngeempawu ezahlukeneyo zokuguqulwa kweemarike. Abadlali abaninzi abaphumeleleyo basebenzisa izicwangciso ezibini ngaxeshanye – barhweba zombini kunye nentsingiselo kwaye ngokuchasene nayo, kuxhomekeke kwimeko.