Isu le-Countertrend ekuhwebeni – indlela yokuhweba ngokumelene nokuthambekela

I-Countertrend ekuhwebeni nasezicini zokuhweba ngokumelene nomkhuba. Iningi lezindlela zokuhweba zincike kulo mkhuba. Kodwa-ke, alukho ulwazi oluningi mayelana nendlela ye-countertrend ekuhwebeni. Kulesi sihloko, sizoxoxa ngokuhweba ngokumelene nokuthambekela ezingeni lethiyori, kanye namasu amanje okusebenza emakethe.

Incazelo ye-countertrend trading

I-Countertrend trading iyindlela yokuhweba lapho umhwebi efuna ukuzuza ngokunyakaza kwamanani okuphambene nenkambiso ekhona. Abahwebi abasebenza ngokumelene nalo mkhuba bazama ukubamba intengo yesikhashana esifushane noma ukuguqulwa okuphelele. Ngokuvamile, amasu okuhweba ngokumelene nomkhuba anesikhathi esimaphakathi – isikhundla sibanjwa kusukela ezinsukwini ezimbalwa kuya emavikini ambalwa. Kodwa lokhu akuwona umthetho we-ironclad: nakuba bengebaningi kangako, bakhona nabathengisi besikhathi esifushane abanamasu aphikisana nethrendi abenza amadili
intraday.. Ngokuvamile, amasu asekelwe kule ndlela afaneleka kunoma yisiphi isikhathi. Ukuhweba ngokumelene nomkhuba kuphambene nokulandela umkhuba. Ngenkathi ukuhweba okuthrendayo kusho ukubamba umfutho bese uhamba nethrendi isikhathi eside ngangokunokwenzeka, isitayela se-countertrend sidinga ukuthola amaphuzu angahle ahlehliswe. Zombili izitayela zokuhweba zingaba nenzuzo ezimweni ezifanele zemakethe futhi lapho zihambisana ne-psychology yomuntu siqu – kwabanye abadayisi, indlela eyodwa ingaba ngcono kunezinye, ngenxa nje yezimpawu zobuntu.

Incazelo. Abadayisi abathrendayo bafuna ukuthola futhi babambe iqhaza ekunyakazeni kwentengo okungenangqondo, kuyilapho abadayisi abaphikisayo befuna ukuthola amaphuzu abalulekile okubuyisela emuva ukuze basebenzise umnyakazo wokulungisa amanani.

Izinzuzo zendlela yokuhweba ye-countertrend

Isitayela esiphambene sokuhweba kwesinye isikhathi singakhohlisa, kepha kunezinzuzo ezithile zokuhweba ngokumelene nesixuku ngezikhathi ezithile, njengoba kuvezwe ngezansi. Inzuzo evela kuhwebo olulodwa inamandla amakhulu kunanoma iyiphi enye indlela. Amasu alandelayo avame ukunikeza ubungozi obuncane kanye nemivuzo ephansi futhi. I-Countertrading, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ihlale iyingozi enkulu, evuzwa ngenzuzo enkulu. Ngenxa yalokho, umhwebi onjalo uzoba nokudonsela phansi okuphezulu okuphansi. Ukwengeza, uma lokhu kuncipha kwenzeka, ungaphuma ezikhathini zokulahlekelwa ngokushesha kunanoma ubani omunye emakethe. Futhi kusukela kumabhonasi siyaqaphela:

1. Izikhathi ezimfushane endaweni . I-Countertrading isebenza ezikhundleni zanoma ibuphi ubude, futhi kufaneleka kakhulu ezikhundleni zesikhashana kunokuhweba okuvamile. Ukubamba izikhundla isikhathi esifushane uma kuqhathaniswa kufanelekile kulabo abavame ukulahlekelwa ukugxila.
2. Amathuba amaningi okubona inzuzo yakho . Ngenxa yezikhathi zokubamba ezimfushane esisanda kuzibalula, abadayisi be-countertrend bayazuza kuqhinga labo lemakethe kaningi kunabahwebi besikhathi eside. Akuvamile ukuthi amasistimu okuhweba aphikisanayo akhiqize ukuhweba okungu-75 noma ngaphezulu ngonyaka kwethuluzi elithile. Lokhu kungaba okungajwayelekile kakhulu kumasu amaningi asuselwe kuthrendi.
3. Akudingekile ukubikezela ukuziphatha kwentengo yesikhathi eside . Abadlali ngokumelene nemakethe bangavula ngokushesha futhi bavale izindawo. Abadingi ukubikezela intengo isikhathi eside. Esikhundleni salokho, banekhono lokugxila ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo yesikhathi esifushane ukuya kweliphakathi, babe nezimo futhi bahwebe nhlangothi zombili zemakethe. Kwanele ukuqagela ukuguqulwa kwentengo eyodwa kuphela.

Ububi bokuhweba ngokumelene nethrendi

Manje njengoba usunombono wezinye zezinzuzo zesitayela se-countertrend, kufanele futhi sisho ezinye zezinkinga zale ndlela. Kubathengisi abaningi, ikakhulukazi labo abasanda kuhweba noma abangenalwazi, kungcono kakhulu ukuhwebelana nomkhuba kuqala, futhi yingakho:

1. Uphambene nokugeleza kwemvelo kwemakethe . Ezimakethe, njengasempilweni, kuhlala kulula ukulandela indlela yokumelana okuncane. Uma umkhuba usanyakaza, uvame ukuphikelela – ngenxa yokuzama ukungqubuzana nalo mkhuba, ungaholela (futhi) kuholele ochungechungeni lonke lokulahlekelwa ukuhweba.
2. Okuthrendayo ezimakethe kulula ukukubona kunamaphuzu e-pivot . Ukushintsha amaphuzu emakethe kungenzeka ngokushesha okukhulu. Ngokushesha kangangokuthi awubi naso isikhathi sokusabela. Amathrendi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kulula kakhulu ukuwabona futhi avame ukuphikelela isikhathi eside – ngakho-ke njengomthengisi, uzobe udlala ngokumelene nabantu abanenzuzo ngaphambili.
3. Kunzima ngokwengqondo ukuba umphikisi – awukho umuzwa omkhulu wengcindezi ekuhwebeni kunokuhweba ngokumelene nawo wonke umuntu. Kuzodingeka uvule isikhundla ngokumelene nesixuku kanye nemakethe. Yize ingakhuphula i-ego yakho, ingaba yingozi futhi ilimaze i-akhawunti yakho yokuhweba kanye ne-psyche yakho uma ungalungile.
4. Ngeke neze wenze inzuzo enkulu – akufanele ulindele ukuhweba okunenzuzo evamile, lindela ama-pluses amakhulu angavamile ebhange. Ngeke uthole izinzuzo ezimaphakathi njalo, uzoba nokukhuphuka nokuphansi okwengeziwe – lokho kuwumnyombo wale ndlela.

Izindlela ezingcono kakhulu zokuhweba ngokumelene nethrendi

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi singaqiniseka kangakanani ekubalweni kwethu kohwebo, akumele sikhohlwe ukuthi “izimakethe zingahlala zingenangqondo isikhathi eside kunalokho esingakwazi ukuhlala sincibilika.” Ake sixoxe ngezinye izinqubo ezihamba phambili ezihlobene nokuhweba ngokumelene nethrendi emakethe. Le mihlahlandlela eyisisekelo izosiza ngokulinganayo noma ngabe uhweba nge-FX, ikusasa noma izitoko.

Ungahwebi ngokumelene nethrendi ngesikhathi somnyakazo wentengo oyi-parabolic.

Noma nini lapho intengo iziphatha ngendlela engavamile, ikakhulukazi phakathi nokunyuka okuqinile noma ukuthambekela okuqinile okufana nokuhamba kwentengo kwendlela eyodwa noma, okubi nakakhulu, ukunyakaza kwentengo okuyi-parabolic, kungcono ukungazibandakanyi nemikhuba ephikisanayo. Kufanele uhlale eceleni futhi ulinde kuze kunciphe ukuntengantenga kwemakethe.

Njalo ube nokulahlekelwa kokuma emakethe

Abanye abadayisi bakhetha ukuba nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi yizitobha zengqondo emakethe kunokumisa ukulahlekelwa. Ukuma kwengqondo empeleni kuyinani umhwebi
akholelwa ukuthi bazovala isikhundla uma ukuhweba kuhamba ngokumelene nabo. Ukulahlekelwa kokuyeka kwangempela, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufakwa emakethe futhi kuqalwe ngokuzenzakalelayo lapho izinga elithile lifinyelelwa. Abadayisi kufanele bahlale benalo lolu hlobo lokumisa emakethe kuphela, ngoba yona kanye indlela yokudlala ngokumelene nemakethe isengozini enkulu yokunyakaza kwamanani okuzumayo okubi.

Ungangezi esikhundleni esivele singenanzuzo

Amanye ama-countertrends athambekele ekukhuphuleni izikhundla zawo uma amanani enyuka ephikisana nawo. Nakuba le ndlela ingase isebenzele abantu abanolwazi oluningi, abantu abaqeqeshekile ngokwedlulele, iningi lizosheshe liphule ibhange. Kunzima ukukhomba iphuzu le-pivot elingenzeka, futhi ngokuvamile uzobe unephutha, ukukhuphuka okungazelelwe kwesikhundla kuzokubeka esimweni esingakhululekile.

Linda ukuqinisekiswa ngaphambi kokuphambene nethrendi

Engeza i-trigger ethile (ngokusekelwe, isibonelo, kunkomba) kuqhinga lakho le-countertrend, ukusebenza kwalo okungaba yisibopho sokungena emakethe. Ngenkathi ukulinda ukuqinisekiswa okunjalo kwesinye isikhathi kunganciphisa isilinganiso somvuzo kuya engcupheni yohwebo, uma sisetshenziswa ngendlela efanele, kuzonyusa izinga lakho lokuwina lilonke. Lokhu kuyiqiniso ikakhulukazi ekuhwebeni okuphikisayo, lapho ngisho nokubala kabi okuncane kungaholela ekulahlekelweni komphumela.

Ungazibeki engcupheni engaphezu kuka-2% kwezohwebo

Impumelelo yanoma yiliphi isu lokuhweba lincike kakhulu ekulawuleni ubungozi okufanele nokuhlelwe kahle. Indawo eyodwa yokulawulwa kobungozi abathengisi okufanele bayinake kakhulu ukulinganisa isikhundla. Izikhundla ezincane kakhulu ngokuvamile ziholela emalini enzalo ephansi, kuyilapho izikhundla ezinkulu kakhulu zingaholela emonakalweni ongaba yinhlekelele. Abahwebi abahweba ngokumelene nemakethe akufanele babeke engozini ngaphezu kuka-2% webhodwe.

Isu lokuhweba ngokumelene nomkhuba

Manje njengoba usunombono wokuthi lesi sitayela sokuhweba sibukeka kanjani, masiqinise ulwazi lwethu futhi sithuthukise isu lokuhweba. Sizosebenzisa izinkomba zobuchwepheshe. Ezimakethe zezimali, ngokuvamile uzobona ukuphusheka kwentengo okuthathu okubheke kuthrendi okuphazanyiswa izilungiso ezimbili ezincane. Labo abajwayele i-Dow Theory noma i-Elliott Wave Theory bazoqaphela ukwakheka kwayo okunamandla. Uma ungayazi imiqondo ye-Elliott Wave Principle, usengayisebenzisa le ndlela.
Uma imakethe isiqedile lokhu kuphusha okuthathu ngakundlela yethrendi, amanani avame ukuhlehla futhi aqale ukulungisa. Ngokwazi lokhu, sizozama ukunquma amathrendi entengo aqedele lokhu kuphusha kwesithathu – kungaba phezulu (kumongo we-uptrend) noma phansi (nge-downtrend). Sizosebenzisa inkomba ye-RSI ukubheka ukwehlukana – ngokushesha nje lapho sibona ukusunduza kwesithathu, sizodinga ukubamba umehluko phakathi kokuphusha kwesibili nokwesithathu kanye nenkomba ye-RSI. Uma intengo kanye nenkomba ye-RSI ihlukana (ukwehlukana kwenzeke), futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo sesivele sinokuphusha kwentengo oku-3, silindele ukuguqulwa okusheshayo futhi siphambene nemakethe. https://articles.opexflow.com/analysis-methods-and-tools/inikator-rsi.htm Ukucacisa, nansi imithetho yokungena esikhundleni eside:

1. Ishadi kufanele libonise isakhiwo sesinyathelo, esibonisa ngokucacile ukuphusha kwamanani okuhlukene okuthathu.
2. Kunokwehluka uma udweba umugqa phakathi kokushwiba okuphansi kokuthuthumela kwesibili nokwesithathu kanye nomugqa oxhuma ezansi ezifanayo eshadini lesikhombi se-RSI.

Dweba umugqa wethrendi ye-bearish kuleli phuzu, uxhuma iziqongo zokulungisa ekunyakazeni kwentengo “yeqa”.

1. I-oda lokufaka lokuthenga libekwe ngentengo yokuthengisa yalo mugqa wethrendi.
2. I-stop loss order kufanele ibekwe ngaphansi kwekhandlela ngaphambi kwekhandlela lokuphumula.

Imithetho yokungena endaweni emfushane iyaboniswa. I-Countertrend ekuhwebeni, isu lokuhweba ngokumelene nomkhuba: https://youtu.be/8UN7iDmswOA

Ukumaketha

Esinye isibonelo sokuhweba okuphambene nethrendi kwabahlanganyeli bokushintshana abanolwazi ukuhweba kwabakhi bemakethe. Umhwebi onjalo wenza amadili kuzo zombili izinkomba. Lapho imakethe iqala ukuhamba ngenkuthalo ohlangothini olulodwa, i-MM yakha isikhundla ngokumelene nokunyakaza kwemakethe, iqongelela ukulahlekelwa esikhundleni. Imakethe ekahle ka-MM yileyo emile. Kulokhu, abanye bathenga ngentengo ye-MM, noma bathengise ngentengo yayo. Futhi into embi kakhulu kumenzi wemakethe yilapho imakethe ihamba ngendlela eyodwa. Amathuba ethrendi esimeme ngezikhathi ezinkulu aphakeme, ngakho abenzi bezimakethe benza amadili endizeni yokuhweba okunemvamisa ephezulu. Okwamanje, kufanele ube nombono wendlela ehlehlayo yokuhweba nokuthi ihluke kanjani ekuhwebeni okuthrendayo. Nakuba ukuhamba ngokumelene nomkhuba oyinhloko kungaba inzuzo enkulu, le ndlela akuyona eyabaqalayo. Ngisho nabathengisi abanolwazi kufanele bazinike isikhathi sokutadisha izimpawu ezihlukahlukene zokuhlehla kwemakethe okuseduze. Abadlali abaningi abaphumelelayo basebenzisa amasu amabili ngesikhathi esisodwa – bahweba kokubili ngethrendi futhi ngokumelene nayo, kuye ngesimo.