Indlela yokuhlaziya inkathi yezitoko – ukuhlaziywa kwesizini emakethe yamasheya

Isenzakalo lapho intengo yesitoko ishintsha khona isikhathi esisodwa unyaka ngamunye inkathi yesitoko. Umhwebi, ngokusekelwe olwazini lwezinguquko, uzuza ngokuhlonza izitayela zentuthuko eziyinhloko, ukukhomba amathuba emakethe ngesikhathi esithile.

Iyini isizini yesitoko nokuthi isetshenziswa kanjani emakethe yamasheya

Izingxenye ezimbili eziyinhloko zinquma isimo emakethe yamasheya. Lokhu ukusebenza kwezimali kanye nokuziphatha kwabatshalizimali. Ukuhlaziywa kwezenzakalo kubonisa ukungabi khona kwamaphethini isikhathi eside. Kodwa isikhathi esifushane sezinto ezifanayo emakethe yamasheya singabonakala ngokunquma isikhathi sonyaka samasheya ngokusekelwe ekuziphatheni kwabatshalizimali. Imikhuba yabantu ababeka imali ishintsha ngaphansi kwethonya lezici eziningi. Isikhathi sonyaka sithinta inani lamasheya ngenxa yokuncipha komsebenzi wabathengisi ngenxa yamaholide, ukwanda kokusebenza kahle komsebenzi wabo ekupheleni konyaka wezimali. Okulindelwe ngabahwebi kuyafezeka, kushintsha isimo emakethe yamasheya. Ezenzela ngokwakhe, umthengisi wamasheya usebenzisa amashadi ezikhathi ezedlule ukuze ahlaziye. Ukuhlonzwa kwezinguquko ezintengweni zempahla kucindezela abahwebi esenzweni ngesikhathi esifanayo. Kuvela iphethini okungenye yezinto okufanele zicatshangelwe lapho usebenza namasheya, kodwa engasetshenziswa njengephuzu eliyisisekelo lokunquma isu lokuthuthukisa. Isikhathi sonyaka samasheya sijwayelekile ezimakethe ezisafufusa, ezihlanganisa nesiRashiya. Ukujula nokuzinza kokuziphatha kwabatshalizimali kuyisici samazwe athuthukile. E-Russia, umgomo oyinhloko wabahwebi ukuthola inzuzo yesikhashana ngokusekelwe ekuqaguleni. I-liquidity ephansi inyusa ukuntengantenga kwamasheya. Umtshali-zimali omkhulu uthengisa izibambiso, abanye bajoyina isivumelwano. Imakethe yamasheya iba sengozini yamathonya angaphandle, aphula ukuzinza. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_387” align = “aligncenter” wide = “1024”] kodwa ungayisebenzisi njengephuzu elibalulekile lokunquma isu lokuthuthukisa. Isikhathi sonyaka samasheya sijwayelekile ezimakethe ezisafufusa, ezihlanganisa nesiRashiya. Ukujula nokuzinza kokuziphatha kwabatshalizimali kuyisici samazwe athuthukile. E-Russia, umgomo oyinhloko wabahwebi ukuthola inzuzo yesikhashana ngokusekelwe ekuqaguleni. I-liquidity ephansi inyusa ukuntengantenga kwamasheya. Umtshali-zimali omkhulu uthengisa izibambiso, abanye bajoyina isivumelwano. Imakethe yamasheya iba sengozini yamathonya angaphandle, aphula ukuzinza. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_387” align = “aligncenter” wide = “1024”] kodwa ungayisebenzisi njengephuzu elibalulekile lokunquma isu lokuthuthukisa. Isikhathi sonyaka samasheya sijwayelekile ezimakethe ezisafufusa, ezihlanganisa nesiRashiya. Ukujula nokuzinza kokuziphatha kwabatshalizimali kuyisici samazwe athuthukile. E-Russia, umgomo oyinhloko wabahwebi ukuthola inzuzo yesikhashana ngokusekelwe ekuqaguleni. I-liquidity ephansi inyusa ukuntengantenga kwamasheya. Umtshali-zimali omkhulu uthengisa izibambiso, abanye bajoyina isivumelwano. Imakethe yamasheya iba sengozini yamathonya angaphandle, aphula ukuzinza. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_387” align = “aligncenter” wide = “1024”] E-Russia, umgomo oyinhloko wabahwebi ukuthola inzuzo yesikhashana ngokusekelwe ekuqaguleni. I-liquidity ephansi inyusa ukuntengantenga kwamasheya. Umtshali-zimali omkhulu uthengisa izibambiso, abanye bajoyina isivumelwano. Imakethe yamasheya iba sengozini yamathonya angaphandle, aphula ukuzinza. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_387” align = “aligncenter” wide = “1024”] E-Russia, umgomo oyinhloko wabahwebi ukuthola inzuzo yesikhashana ngokusekelwe ekuqaguleni. I-liquidity ephansi inyusa ukuntengantenga kwamasheya. Umtshali-zimali omkhulu uthengisa izibambiso, abanye bajoyina isivumelwano. Imakethe yamasheya iba sengozini yamathonya angaphandle, aphula ukuzinza. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_387” align = “aligncenter” wide = “1024”]
Ukuziphatha kwenkomba ye-snp500 kuye ngesizini – lokho okubizwa ngomphumela kaSepthemba, ukukhula okungekuhle [/ amazwibela] Enye into yokungaqini kahle kwemakethe yamasheya evelayo ukuncika kwesabelomali sombuso waseRussia emananini kawoyela. Amazwe athuthukile aqondiswe ezinsizeni, ngakho-ke awachayeka kancane ezindlekweni eziguquguqukayo zezinto zokusetshenziswa ezivuthayo. Inkinga ilele ezinguqukweni zokukhiqizwa kwezimboni ezithinta imakethe yamasheya yamazwe asathuthuka. Ukungabikho kwezenzo zokuzivikela ezingase zinzinzise ukuguquguquka kwentengo nakho kunciphisa ukuzinza kwemakethe yezibambiso ezivelayo.

Izici zesizini yemakethe

Isizini yemakethe yamasheya ingalandelelwa ngekota yokuqala yonyaka. Kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, intengo yezibambiso ikhuphuke ngekota yokuqala. Lokhu kungenxa yokwabiwa kwezimali zomhlaba ngalesi sikhathi. I-Liquidity ikhuliswa yizimali ezivela kwiSabelomali Sempesheni, zilekelelwa ngokudluliswa kukaDisemba kusuka ephaketheni likahulumeni. Inzuzo yabatshalizimali yehla ngekota yesibili. Incazelo yalo mkhuba ilula, ukuthi izimali ezintsha ziyasatshalaliswa. Iminikelo yomphakathi yokuqala yenziwa ekuqaleni konyaka, inzuzo ihleliwe, emva kwalokho igagasi lokuthengisa lenzeka ekupheleni kwekota yokuqala. Ngokufunda iminyaka eyishumi edlule, singaphetha ngokuthi imali yekota yesithathu iphansi. Izinyanga zasehlobo ziyinkathi yamaholide, abatshalizimali baya eholidini, isici sonyaka emakethe sithinta amanani entengo. Izinto ziyashintsha ngoSepthemba kunesikhathi sokuvuselela, esibonakala ngezabelo ezintsha. Ngekota yesine, i-US ibeka ithoni yokunyakaza kukaKhisimusi. E-Russia, umthengi uvulwa emakethe yezibambiso. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_391” align = “aligncenter” wide = “601”]
Ukuhlaziywa kwesizini kwenkomba ye-Dow Jones kusukela ngo-1896 – Septhemba nakho kubomvu Ukwenyuka kokuguquguquka kuwuphawu lwezakhiwo ezithuthukayo. I-Russia izokhombisa ukuntuleka kozinzo inqobo nje uma imakethe yamasheya ibonakala ngesigaba somnotho osathuthuka. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_394″ align=”aligncenter” width=”484″]
Ukukhula okumaphakathi emakethe yesitoko yaseRussia yaso sonke isikhathi se-RTS kusukela ngo-1995 kanye ne-Moscow Exchange kusukela ngo-1997[/caption]

Indlela yokuhlaziya inkathi yesitoko

Lapho wenza izibikezelo, ukuhlaziywa kwesizini kuzuzisa abahwebi. Isu lokuhweba lisekelwe eminyakeni eminingi yesipiliyoni emakethe yamasheya. Umthombo wesidingo yibo bonke abafaka amathenda: abahwebi, abatshalizimali, izinhlaka zikahulumeni, izikhwama zempesheni. Umsebenzi wokuhlaziya ukukhomba isikhathi lapho amasheya amaningi adingeka khona. Indlela elula yokubala idatha emaphakathi. Inqubo yokuhlaziya imi kanje:

• Izingcaphuno ziye zafundwa iminyaka eminingana.
• Izintengo zosuku ngalunye zithathwa ukuze zengezwe.
• Amanani ahlukaniswa ngesiphindaphinda.

Ukumelwa okuyingcaca komphumela otholwe ngendlela yomugqa kubonisa ukuguquguquka kwamanani esikhathi esikhethiwe. Ulayini odlulayo eduze kwawo yi-arithmetic mean, ugqanyiswe ngombala ohlukile. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_393” align = “aligncenter” wide = “609”]
Izimakethe Ezisafufusa – I-MSCI EM Index[/caption] Umdwebo uveza imijikelezo yomhlaba. Uma isilinganiso sikhuphuka, khona-ke isidingo sesitoko siyakhula. Ukuze kuhlaziywe, ukuthengwa kulesi sigaba kufanele kucatshangelwe. Uma ikhotheshini iwela ngokwesilinganiso, isidingo siyehla. Kulesi sikhathi, sifuna amathuba okuthengisa. Esigabeni sesibili sokuhlaziya, inkampani esebenza ngenzuzo iyabhekwa. Ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe kufanele kwenziwe kumasampula lapho i-dynamics yenkomba emaphakathi inqunywa unyaka owodwa “oqinile”. Ukuhlaziywa kwezikhathi zonyaka zamasheya kufanele kwenziwe ngesisekelo salokhu:

1. Imibono eshicilelwe yabahlaziyi.
2. Imibiko yethrendi ekhona edumile kulesi sigaba.
3. Amashadi okuhlaziya obuchwepheshe aqhathanisa izilinganiso nezinombolo zangempela zesikhathi esithile.
4. Ukuhlaziywa kwezinkampani inyanga ngaphambi kokushicilelwa kwemibiko. Ukuzijwayeza kubonisa ukukhula kwentengo yamasheya amafemu aphumelelayo ngaphambi kokuqala kokukhuphuka kwesizini.
5. Ukuhlaziywa komkhakha.
6. Ukuhlaziywa kwezinguquko ezimbuyiselweni eziqhathaniswa nenkomba iyonke.

Ukushintshashintsha kwentengo kwesizini kufanele kusetshenziswe ngokufanelekile ukuze kunqunywe isu. Le nkomba iyisici esivumayo sokuvula isivumelwano nezibambiso. Ngokusebenzisa inkathi yonyaka, abahwebi bangakwazi ukuncintisana ngempumelelo emakethe yamasheya. Odinga ukukwazi mayelana nesizini yesitoko emakethe yamasheya – yisiphi isikhathi esingcono kakhulu sokutshala imali ekuhwebeni kwamasheya: https://youtu.be/wDF1-SO5EkE

Izibonelo Ezisebenzayo – Ungawabheka Kanjani Amaphethini Wesizini Esitokweni

Kukhona amasheya esizini emakethe yamasheya. Ezinye zazo zihlobene nokuziphatha kwabathengi. Ngokwesibonelo, ibhizinisi lezokuvakasha lisekelwe esifisweni sabantu abahlala enyakatho sokuya eholidini e-Caribbean ebusika. Abathengi bayasebenza kusukela ngoNovemba kuze kube uKhisimusi. Abakhi bayasebenza ehlobo. Uma sicabangela izitshalo zezolimo, isibonelo, ummbila, khona-ke kufanele kucatshangelwe ukuthi itshalwe entwasahlobo futhi ivunwa ekwindla. Ngesikhathi sokuvuna, kuhlala kuningi. Ungabheka amaqiniso anjalo lapho uphetha ukuthengiselana ngamasheya ezinkampani. Amathrendi entengo yesitoko esizini athuthuka ngenxa yezehlakalo ezimakethe zezimpahla. Iphutha labathengisi ukusebenzisa kabi amandla emakethe. Kuyadingeka ukucabangela intengo yezibambiso ngaphandle kokubhekisela kumadethi athile. Ukuthambekela okuvamile kokuthambekela kokuvuka noma ukuwa kufanele kube isihloko socwaningo ukuze kwenziwe isenzo esiyimpumelelo. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_396” align = “aligncenter” wide = “707”]
Ukushintshashintsha kwesizini kwemakethe yamasheya kusibonelo sezingcaphuno zenkomba ze-SNP 500[/ amazwibela] Ukusesha iphethini yesizini ngokukhomba inani elimaphakathi lonyaka kuhilela izinyathelo ezilandelayo:

1. Ukunqunywa kwamanani entengo yanyanga zonke ngokulungiswa okulandelayo kwezinombolo kuthebula.
2. Ukubalwa kwezibalo yenani elimaphakathi lonyaka.
3. Hlukanisa intengo yanyanga zonke ngesilinganiso sonyaka bese ususa u-1.
4. Bala isilinganiso senyanga ngayinye.

Ishadi elakhiwe libonisa amanani aphezulu ommbila ngesikhathi sokutshala, amanani aphansi ekuvuneni. Esinye isibonelo senkathi yamasheya intengo yethusi, izinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi, okuncike emsebenzini womkhakha wokwakha. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_388” align = “aligncenter” wide = “624”]
Amandla entengo yethusi [/ amazwibela] Amaphethini esizini athinta inani lamasheya amahhotela, izinkampani zezindiza. Amaphromoshini ahambisana nokuthenga kukaKhisimusi enza inzuzo ngobusuku bangaphambi kweholide. Ngezinye izikhathi, izimakethe zithule. Lonke ulwazi mayelana nesikhathi sonyaka lutholakala kubo bonke abatshalizimali. Ukuthola izilinganiso zonyaka, udinga ukuzisebenzisa ukuze uzuze. Ukuthengisa izibambiso ngesikhathi sesivuno esiphezulu, ukuthenga ngesikhathi somsebenzi ophansi – yile ndlela umthengisi onekhono osebenza ngayo emakethe yezibambiso. Isibonelo, kulo nyaka ngoSepthemba idola likhuphuke ngo-1.36. Lokhu kungenxa yenkathi yohlobo lwemali. Lokhu ngokwesiko inyanga eqinile phakathi neminyaka embalwa. EMelika, unyaka wezimali uyaphela futhi imakethe yamasheya iyawa. Izibalo azishintshile iminyaka eminingana. [i-id yamagama-ncazo = “okunamathiselwe_389” align = “aligncenter” wide = “623”]
Isikhathi sonyaka samanani entengo emakethe yesitoko [/ amazwibela] Nokho, izibikezelo azihlali ziqondana neqiniso. Konke kuncike ekuziphatheni kwabasebenzisi bezinsizakalo. Amaphethini okuhamba ayashintsha ngenxa yezaphulelo ezinikezwa izinkampani zokuhamba. Ukuthenga izipho ngamaholide kaKhisimusi kuqala nge-Thanksgiving. Ngakho-ke, umhwebi ukhomba okuphezulu kanye nemvamisa yemiphumela emihle lapho intengo ikhuphukile esikhathini esithile. Ukunquma iphethini ngokuhlanganisa nokususa kunikeza isibikezelo esisuselwe kunkathi yesitoko. Isibonelo sommbila ngolwazi oluwusizo kakhulu: kusukela ngoFebhuwari kuya ku-Ephreli kunamathuba amaningi okuthola imali – 80%, kusukela ngo-Okthoba – 10%.
Amasheya athengiswa ekuqaleni konyaka, okulindeleke ukuthi athengwe kabusha ngesikhathi sokuvuna, azoba namathuba aphezulu okuphumelela. Isikhathi sonyaka sesitoko sibandakanya ukukhethwa kwemvamisa yokuthengisa. Lapho ubala isu, kuyadingeka ukunquma imvamisa yenyanga iminyaka eminingana, ukukhomba ubukhulu kanye nobuncane. Qala umsebenzi lapho inkomba okungenani ingamaphesenti angama-75, ukhetha inyanga yefrikhwensi ephezulu. Ukuthengisa nokuthenga amasheya kudinga ukuhlaziywa ukuze kutshalwe imali ngempumelelo emakethe yamasheya. Indlela yokulinganisa amanani esikhathini esithile iveza amanani aphezulu. Ukusetshenziswa kwezinkomba zenani elikhulu kulekelelwa ngokuhlonza imvamisa yokubonakaliswa kwayo. Amaphethini athinta ukuthengiselana kokugcina. Izitokwe zonyaka ziqhutshwa isimo sezulu kanye nezakhiwo zabathengi okumele abatshalizimali nabahwebi bazicabangele.