Indlela yokuhlalutya i-seasonality of stocks – uhlalutyo lonyaka kwi-stock market

Isenzeko apho ixabiso lesitokhwe litshintsha kwithuba elinye kunyaka ngamnye lixesha lempahla. Umrhwebi, ngokusekelwe kulwazi lweenguqu, inzuzo ngokuchonga iindlela eziphambili zophuhliso, ukuchonga amathuba emarike ngexesha elithile.

Yintoni i-stock season kunye nendlela yokuyisebenzisa kwi-stock market

Amacandelo amabini aphambili amisela imeko kwimarike yemasheya. Oku kukusebenza kwemali kunye nokuziphatha komtyali-mali. Uhlalutyo lweziganeko lubonisa ukungabikho kweepateni ixesha elide. Kodwa ixesha elifutshane leemeko ezifanayo kwimarike yemasheya inokuchongwa ngokumisela ixesha lempahla esekelwe kwindlela yokuziphatha yabatyalo-mali. Imikhwa yabantu ababeka utshintsho olukhulu phantsi kweempembelelo zezinto ezininzi. Ixesha lonyaka lichaphazela ixabiso lezabelo ngenxa yokuncipha komsebenzi wabarhwebi ngenxa yeeholide, ukwanda kokusebenza kakuhle komsebenzi wabo ekupheleni konyaka-mali. Ukulindela kwabahwebi kukuzizalisekisa, ukutshintsha imeko kwimarike yemasheya. Esebenza ngokwakhe, umthengisi wempahla usebenzisa iitshathi zamaxesha angaphambili ukuhlalutya. Ukuchongwa kweenguqu kumaxabiso e-asethi kutyhala abarhwebi kwisenzo kwangelo xesha. Kuvela ipateni enye yezinto ezimele zithathelwe ingqalelo xa zisebenza kunye nezitokhwe, kodwa zingasetyenziswanga njengento esisiseko yokumisela isicwangciso sophuhliso. Ixesha lezabelo liqhelekileyo kwiimarike ezikhulayo, ezibandakanya isiRashiya. Ubunzulu kunye nozinzo lokuziphatha kwabatyali-zimali luphawu lwamazwe aphuhlileyo. ERashiya, injongo ephambili yabarhwebi kukufumana inzuzo yexesha elifutshane esekelwe kwingcamango. Amaxabiso aphantsi okuhlawula amatyala anyusa ukuguquguquka kwezabelo. Umtyali-mali omkhulu uthengisa izibambiso, abanye bajoyina isivumelwano. Imarike yemasheya iba sesichengeni kwiimpembelelo zangaphandle, eziqhekeza ukuzinza.

Indlela yokuhlalutya ixesha lempahla

Xa kusenziwa uqikelelo, uhlalutyo lonyaka lunceda abahwebi. Isicwangciso sokurhweba sisekelwe kwiminyaka emininzi yamava kwi-stock market. Umthombo wemfuno ngabo bonke ababhidi: abarhwebi, abatyali-mali, ii-arhente zikarhulumente, iingxowa-mali zomhlalaphantsi. Umsebenzi wohlalutyo kukuchonga ixesha apho uninzi lwesitokhwe lufuna. Eyona ndlela ilula kukubala idatha ephakathi. Inkqubo yohlalutyo ngolu hlobo lulandelayo:

• Iingcaphuno zifundwe iminyaka emininzi.
• Amaxabiso osuku ngalunye athatyathelwa ukongezwa.
• Amaxabiso ahlulwe ngesiphindaphinda.

Ukubonakaliswa komzobo wesiphumo esifunyenwe ngendlela yomgca kubonisa ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso kwixesha elikhethiweyo. Umgca wokudlula ecaleni kwayo yi-arithmetic mean, igxininiswe ngombala owahlukileyo. Umzobo ubonisa imijikelo yehlabathi. Ukuba umyinge unyuka, ngoko imfuno yesitokisi iyanda. Ukuhlalutya, ukuthengwa kweli nqanaba kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo. Ukuba ikowuteshini iwa ngokwe-avareji, ngoko imfuno iyancipha. Ngeli xesha, sijonge amathuba okuthengisa. Kwinqanaba lesibini lohlalutyo, inkampani esebenza ngenzuzo iyaqwalaselwa. Uhlalutyo lobuchwephesha kufuneka lwenziwe kwiisampuli apho i-dynamics yesalathisi esiphakathi inqunywe ngunyaka omnye “oqinileyo”. Uhlalutyo lwexesha lezabelo kufuneka lwenziwe ngokwesiseko:

1. Izimvo ezipapashiweyo zabahlalutyi.
2. Iingxelo ezikhoyo ezikhoyo ezidumileyo kweli nqanaba.
3. Iitshathi zohlalutyo lobuchwephesha zithelekisa i-avareji kunye namanani okwenene kwixesha elithile.
4. Uhlalutyo lweenkampani kwinyanga ngaphambi kokupapashwa kweengxelo. Ukuziqhelanisa kubonisa ukukhula kwixabiso lezabelo zeefemu eziphumelelayo ngaphambi kokuqala kokunyuka kwexesha lonyaka.
5. Uhlalutyo lwecandelo.
6. Uhlalutyo lweenguqu kwimbuyekezo xa kuthelekiswa nesalathiso sisonke.

Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso lexesha kufuneka kusetyenziswe ngokufanelekileyo ukumisela iqhinga. Esi salathi-nkqubela yinto efanelekileyo yokuvula isivumelwano kunye nezibambiso. Ukuthatha ithuba lonyaka, abahwebi banokukhuphisana ngempumelelo kwimarike yemasheya. Yintoni okufuneka uyazi malunga nexesha lonyaka lwesitokhwe kwimarike yemasheya – leliphi ixesha elifanelekileyo lokutyala imali kwi-stock exchange: https://youtu.be/wDF1-SO5EkE

Imizekeliso eSebenzayo-Uzijonga njani iipateni zonyaka kwiZitokhwe

Kukho ii-stocks zonyaka kwi-stock market. Ezinye zazo zinxulumene nokuziphatha kwabathengi. Ngokomzekelo, ishishini lokhenketho lisekelwe kumnqweno wabantu abahlala emantla wokuya eholideyini kwiiCaribbean ebusika. Abathengi bayasebenza ukusuka ngoNovemba ukuya kwiKrisimesi. Abakhi bayasebenza ehlotyeni. Ukuba siqwalasela izityalo zezolimo, umzekelo, umbona, ngoko kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo ukuba ityalwe entwasahlobo kwaye ivunwe ekwindla. Ngexesha lokuvuna, kuhlala kukho okuninzi. Unokuthathela ingqalelo ezo nyaniso xa ugqibezela ukuthengiselana kwizabelo zeenkampani. Iintsingiselo zexabiso lesitokhwe sexesha lonyaka ziphuhla ngenxa yeziganeko kwiimarike zorhwebo. Impazamo yabarhwebi kukusebenzisa kakubi amandla emarike. Kuyimfuneko ukuqwalasela ixabiso lezibambiso ngaphandle kokubhekisela kwimihla ethile. Umkhwa oqhelekileyo wokunyuka okanye ukuwa kufuneka ube ngumxholo wokufunda ukuze kwenziwe ngempumelelo. Ukukhangela ipatheni yexesha lonyaka ngokuchonga umndilili wexabiso lonyaka kubandakanya oku kulandelayo:

1. Ukumiselwa kwamaxabiso enyanga kunye nokulungiswa kwamanani okulandelayo kwitheyibhile.
2. Ubalo lwezibalo lomndilili wexabiso lonyaka.
3. Yahlula ixabiso lenyanga nge-avareji yonyaka kwaye uthabathe i-1.
4. Bala umyinge wenyanga nganye.

Itshathi eyakhiweyo ibonisa amaxabiso aphezulu ombona ngexesha lokutyala, amanani aphantsi ekuvuneni. Omnye umzekelo wexesha lonyaka wee-stocks yintengo yobhedu, i-metal non-ferrous, exhomekeke kumsebenzi weshishini lokwakha.
Ukutshintsha kwamaxabiso ekopolo [/ caption] Iipateni zamaxesha onyaka zichaphazela ixabiso lezabelo zeehotele, iinkampani zeenqwelomoya. Iintengiso ezinxulumene nokuthenga iKrisimesi zenza inzuzo ngobusuku bangaphambi kweholide. Ngamanye amaxesha, iimarike zithe cwaka. Lonke ulwazi malunga nexesha lonyaka luyafumaneka kumtyali-mali ngamnye. Ukufumana imiyinge yonyaka, kufuneka uyisebenzise ukuze uzuze. Ukuthengisa izibambiso ngexesha lesivuno esiphezulu, ukuthenga ngexesha lomsebenzi ophantsi – yile ndlela umrhwebi onobuchule osebenza ngayo kwiimarike zokhuseleko. Ngokomzekelo, kulo nyaka ngoSeptemba idola yenyuka nge-1.36. Oku kungenxa yexesha lemali. Le ngokwesiko yinyanga eyomeleleyo kwiminyaka emininzi. EMelika, unyaka-mali uphela kwaye i-stock market iyawa. Iinkcukacha-manani azitshintshanga iminyaka eliqela.
Ixesha lonyaka lamaxabiso emali kutshintshiselwano lwesitokhwe [/ caption] Nangona kunjalo, uqikelelo lwangaphambili alusoloko lungqamana nenyani. Konke kuxhomekeke ekuziphatheni kwabasebenzisi beenkonzo. Iindlela zokuhamba ziyatshintsha ngenxa yezaphulelo ezibonelelwa ziinkampani zokuhamba. Ukuthenga izipho ngeeholide zeKrisimesi kuqala ngoMbulelo. Ngoko ke, umrhwebi uchonga phezulu kunye nokuphindaphinda kweziphumo ezilungileyo xa ixabiso liye landa ngaphezu kwexesha elithile. Ukumisela ipateni kwi-plus kunye ne-minus kunika uqikelelo olusekelwe kwixesha lonyaka le-stocks. Umzekelo wengqolowa ngolwazi olungakumbi luncedo: ukususela ngoFebruwari ukuya ku-Ephreli kukho amathuba aphezulu engeniso – i-80%, ukususela ngo-Oktobha – 10%.
Izabelo ezithengiswe ekuqaleni konyaka, ekulindeleke ukuba zithengwe kwakhona ngexesha lokuvuna, ziya kuba nethuba eliphezulu lokuphumelela. Ixesha le-stocks libandakanya ukhetho lokuphindaphinda kokuthengiswa. Xa ubala isicwangciso, kuyimfuneko ukugqiba i-frequency yenyanga iminyaka emininzi, ukuchonga ubuninzi kunye nobuncinci. Qala umsebenzi xa isalathisi sincinci ipesenti ze-75, ukhetha inyanga ephezulu-frequency. Ukuthengisa nokuthenga izabelo kufuna uhlalutyo lokutyala imali ngempumelelo kwimarike yemasheya. Indlela yokulinganisa amaxabiso ngexesha elithile ityhila amaxabiso aphezulu. Ukusetyenziswa kwezikhombisi zexabiso elikhulu longezwa ngokuchongwa kokuphindaphinda kokubonakaliswa kwayo. Iipateni zichaphazela iintengiselwano zokugqibela. Izitokhwe zonyaka ziqhutywa yimozulu kunye neepropati zabathengi ukuba abatyali-mali kunye nabarhwebi kufuneka baqwalasele.