Yintoni umkhwa wokurhweba, indlela yokuchonga kunye nendlela yokurhweba

Yintoni umkhwa wokurhweba, indlela yokuwuchonga kwitshathi, kunye nendlela yokuthengisa i-uptrend kunye ne-downtrend. Ukukwazi ukuqaphela umkhwa wokurhweba kunceda ukurhweba ngempumelelo asethi. Umzila kwingqiqo ebanzi yivector yexabiso lentengo ye-asethi. Eli gama laziswa nguCharles Dow, umseki wethiyori
yohlalutyo lobugcisa . Umkhwa, ngamagama alula, yindlela yokulandelela amandla okukhula kunye nokuhla kwamaxabiso e-asethi. Ngokusekelwe kula manqaku, unokuphinda unqume ukuphela kwendlela. Ithiyori yeDow ayisiyiyo yodwa kunye nesixhobo esingacacanga sokuqikelela ixabiso. Ngokwale mbono, iintlobo ezintathu zomkhwa zinokuhlukaniswa: i-uptrend, i-downtrend kunye necala. Umkhwa osecaleni kukungabikho kokukhula okanye ukuhla. Elinye igama lale nto yi “flat”.

Indlela yokuchonga umkhwa?

Ukuphendula lo mbuzo, kuyimfuneko ukuqonda indima yale nto kwintengiso. Uhlalutyo lwevector yokushukuma kwamaxabiso sisiseko sokwenza izigqibo zotyalo-mali. Ukuba ixabiso lihamba phambili, ngoko urhwebo luyakwazi ukwenza inzuzo. Kuzo zonke iimarike zemali, ixabiso lihamba ngendlela ye-zigzag. Le zigzag inceda ukwakha uhlalutyo kunye nokuqikelela amaxabiso. Kule njongo, iindlela ezahlukeneyo zisetyenziswa. Zezi zilandelayo:

1. Uhlalutyo lwemizobo . Indlela kukwakha umgca wokukhula kwexabiso. Ngethuba nje ixabiso lingaphezulu okanye lingaphantsi kwalo mgca, abarhwebi bathi ixabiso liyaqhubeka lihamba.
2. Uhlalutyo lobuGcisa . Izalathisi zisetyenziselwa uhlalutyo lobugcisa. Uhlalutyo lobuchwephesha lunceda ukulandelela kuphela i-vector yexabiso, kodwa kunye namandla omzila. Kule meko, imilinganiselo ehambayo isetyenziselwa ukufezekisa injongo.
3. Uhlalutyo olusisiseko . Ibandakanya uhlalutyo lolwazi, ukusuka kubugcisa ukuya kwezoqoqosho. Ngokunxulumene ne-cryptocurrency, oku kuthetha ukufunda ulwazi malunga neprojekthi ye-cryptocurrency, i-ontology, izinto ezihambelanayo, izicwangciso zeprojekthi, njalo njalo. Le ndlela ifanelekile ekwakheni uqikelelo lwexesha elide.
4. Uhlalutyo lomthamo . Umthamo wokukhula kunye nokwehla uyathelekiswa. Ukuba ubungakanani bokukhula bubambekayo, kunengqiqo ukukholelwa ukuba i-vector ihambela phezulu kwaye kuya kubakho ukuguqulwa ngokukhawuleza. Ukuba ukuwa kuyamangalisa, ukukhula kulindeleke.

Ukuba kukho ukuthambekela kwixabiso, naluphi na urhwebo kwelo cala luphethe inzuzo enokubakho. Kodwa akwanelanga ukuba umrhwebi oyingcali athembele kwindlela enjalo engaphezulu. Ukuze uqiniseke, kufuneka uqikelele ngononophelo indawo yokungena. Sifumanise ukuba yintoni umkhwa, ukuba sisebenza ngamagama alula. Ngoku umbuzo ngowokuba ungawusebenzisa njani? Isinyathelo esilandelayo kukwakha uhlalutyo olusiphumo kwisicwangciso sakho. Ukwenza njani? Kuluncedo ukuqwalasela le migaqo ilandelayo:

1. Umzila ngoyena mhlobo wakho usenyongweni: umkhwa ngumhlobo osenyongweni womrhwebi. Indawo yokungena yorhwebo kufuneka ibe kwi-uptrend.
2. Kuluncedo ukusebenzisa iindawo ezininzi zokungena kwicala lendlela. Ngexesha elithile, sebenzisa inxalenye yemali, kwenye – enye inxalenye. Oko kukuthi, musa ukugalela zonke iimali ngexesha elinye.
3. Sebenzisa stop odolo ukuthintela ilahleko. Kucetyiswa ukuba ubeke i-stop order emva komgca wokukhula kwaye kufuneka uhlengahlengise njengoko amaxabiso etshintsha.
4. Ungalibali ukuphuma kurhwebo ngexesha. Oku kunokuba kukufikelela kwinqanaba elicwangcisiweyo lenzuzo. Okanye xa ulungisa umyalelo wokumisa, oku kwenzeka ngokuzenzekelayo.

Kubalulekile ukunikela ingqalelo kwinqaku lokugqibela. Iingcali zilumkisa ukuba ayingobuchule bokuyeka ngexesha abaqalayo. Umkhwa uvame ukuphela ngokukhawuleza, okanye utshintshe i-vector yokuhamba. Emva koko inzuzo ingajika ibe yilahleko.

Iintlobo zeendlela zokurhweba

Ngokwethiyori, iintsingiselo kuzo zonke iimarike zahlulwe ngokwezi ntlobo zilandelayo:

• Iindlela zehlabathi ezihamba phambili kwiminyaka eyadlulayo . Babonisa izikhokelo eziqhelekileyo zokuhamba.
• Iintsingiselo eziphakathi zilinganiswa ukusuka kwiinyanga ezininzi ukuya kwiminyaka emininzi.
• Iindlela zexesha elifutshane zibonisa utshintsho lwangoku lwemarike. Oku kuquka neentshukumo eziqikelelwayo kunye neentsingiselo ezingabalulekanga.

Zontathu iindidi zeentsingiselo zikhona ngaxeshanye kuzo zonke iimarike. Kubarhwebi, awona manqaku mancinci kwaye aphezulu abalulekile. Uptrend:
Ukunyuka kwinqanaba lehlabathi kukwabizwa ngokuba “bullish”. Ngaphakathi kwesakhelo salo mcimbi, uhlalutyo lwenziwa ngophuhliso lweemarike zehlabathi, ukunyuka okanye ukuhla kwe-investment, njalo njalo. downtrend

Amanqanaba okwakheka

Ukwakheka komkhwa kwenzeka kwizigaba ezithathu. Makhe siqwalasele nganye kuzo.

1. isigaba sokuqokelela. Ngokwesiqhelo yandulela inqanaba lokudodobala koqoqosho. Lo mzuzu uthathelwa ingqalelo kwisicwangciso sabahwebi njengesiqalo sokuvula izikhundla ezide. Kukholelwa ukuba ixabiso lifikelele kwinqanaba apho ukuthengwa kwe-asethi kunokuba nenzuzo kakhulu. Inqanaba lokuqokelela lidla ngokuqalisa ukukhula kwexabiso le-asethi.
2. Umlinganiswa omkhulu . Inani labatyali-mali kweli nqanaba liyanda. Ukufika “kwesihlwele” kulindeleke. Le nkqubo yenzeka ngokuthe ngcembe. Kweli nqanaba, ukukhula okuphezulu kwixabiso le-asethi kubonwa. Ngokwexesha, eli xesha lide kunesigaba sokuqokelela kunye nesigaba esilandelayo.
3. Inqanaba lokusasaza . Kweli nqanaba, amazinga okukhula awabalulekanga okanye ayeke. Le yindawo apho abatyali-mali abaninzi bajonga inzuzo yabo ekujoliswe kuyo ukuba kufikelelwe kuyo. Baqala ukuthengisa ii-asethi kwabo basabandakanywa kwindlela. Imiyinge yokuthengisa iyacinywa yimithamo emitsha yokuthenga. Emva koko, ijika lexabiso liya kwiflethi okanye liyehla.

Siye saqwalasela i-uptrend. I-downtrend xa umjikelo onikiweyo udlula ngaphantsi komgca weklasikhi. Utshintsho oluphawulekayo kwi-dynamics yokuhamba kwempahla kunye nokuguquka ukusuka kwesinye isigaba ukuya kwesinye, abatyali-mali abakhulu badlala indima ebalulekileyo. Omnye umrhwebi, kunye nepotifoliyo eqinile, akakwazi ukuchaphazela ukuhamba kwendlela. Injongo yomthengisi kule nkqubo kukubona izigaba ngexesha lokumisela indawo yokungena efanelekileyo. Ngasekupheleni kwenqanaba, amathuba okungena okungachanekanga ayanda. Kule meko, endaweni yenzuzo, umrhwebi unokufumana ilahleko. Indlela yokurhweba ngeendlela ezihamba phambili: https://youtu.be/JLXt4SzGcwQ

Iimpawu zoMkhwa

Umkhwa uneempawu ezininzi. Inokushwankathelwa ngokwezi mpawu zilandelayo:

• Ubukho besikhokelo : i-downtrend kunye ne-uptrend.
• ubude bexesha . Kukho iindidi ezintathu: ixesha elifutshane, eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide.
• Amandla . Ibonisa inani labarhwebi ababandakanyekayo. Okukhona abarhwebi bebandakanyiwe kwi-trend, impembelelo eninzi abanayo kwi-directional kunye ne-vector yayo. Kwakhona, inani labathengisi ababandakanyekayo lichaphazela ibhalansi yabathengisi kunye nabathengi be-asethi. Amaxabiso e-asethi akhuphuka ngokuhambelana ngokuthe ngqo kwinani labarhwebi ababandakanyekayo.

Kwakhona kwithiyori yeDow, iimpawu eziphambili zomkhwa zigxininisiwe. Kule thiyori, ezi mpawu zilandelayo zinokwahlulwa:

• umkhwa okhulayo uvame ukuqhubeka kunye ne-vector, eya kwenza ukuguqulwa okubukhali okanye ukuphela;
• okukhona ukuqina kwayo, kokukhona ihlala ixesha elide;
• ukukhula okanye ukuwa kudla ngokuphela nangawuphi na umzuzu;
• ukuba kwixesha elidlulileyo, phantsi kweemeko ezithile, i-vector yentshukumo ithobela iphethini ethile, oku akuthethi ukuba kwakhona lo mgaqo uya kusebenza phantsi kweemeko ezifanayo.

Ezi mpawu zinokulandelwa ngokucacileyo yi-dynamics kwimarike ye-cryptocurrency.

Amanqanaba anamandla

Amanqanaba aDynamic yi-avareji ehambayo. Kukho inqanaba lenkxaso kunye nenqanaba lokumelana. Ukuba i-curve ye-trend ingaphezulu kwe-trend curve, ke kuthiwa ikukuchasa. Ukuba ingaphantsi komgca, ke lo ngummandla wenkxaso. Iindawo zokungena kurhwebo ziphakathi kwezi ndidi.

Ungangena njani kwaye uphume njani kurhwebo lwentengiso?

Kubathengisi, umthetho wamanqanaba uyasebenza apha: ukuba ijika likwinqanaba lokumelana, kufuneka uthengise impahla, ukuba iphantsi, ke uthenge. Kwakhona, ukungena ngempumelelo kwintengiselwano kuthathwa njengomzuzu wokuwela i-avareji ehambayo. Nangona kunjalo, akufanele ungxame. Abahwebi abanamava bayayazi i-psychology yabaqalayo, ukuba ngemifanekiso enjalo, baya kuqalisa ngokukhawuleza ukuvula izivumelwano. Kufuneka ulinde de kuvulwe inani elaneleyo leeodolo. Oku kubizwa ngokuba sisiqinisekiso.

Uzifumana njani izikhundla kunye nokumisa kwiindawo zokurhweba?

Esinye sezona zicwangciso zilula kwaye zinenzuzo kakhulu kukurhweba ngezenzo zexabiso. Isenzo sexabiso yindlela apho umrhwebi egxininisa kuphela kwitshati, enganikeli ingqalelo kwizikhombisi. Uhlalutyo lwe-trend ngaphakathi kwesenzo sexabiso luqhutyelwa kwinqanaba lenkxaso, ukuchasana kunye neepatheni zamakhandlela. Kwakhona, njengenxalenye yesenzo sexabiso, unokulawula ngokufanelekileyo ingozi yakho. Ukuyeka ilahleko kuya kunceda kule nto. Ukuyeka ilahleko luphawu olubekwe kwangaphambili. Oku kuyimfuneko ukwenzela ukuba kuqinisekiswe umthengisi ngokuchasene nelahleko enkulu ngexesha letshati ye-downtrend. Kukho izicwangciso ezahlukeneyo zokuyeka ilahleko. Iingcali zincoma ukubeka ilahleko yokuyeka emva kwezithintelo ezithile endleleni yomzila. Yeyiphi imiqobo? Umzekelo, ezi:

• amanqanaba enkxaso kunye nokumelana;
• iimpawu zengqondo;
• ukuphakama nokuhla kweepateni zamva nje zekhandlela.

Ukubeka ukumisa emva komqobo kuqinisekiswa yinyaniso yokuba ixabiso lihlala livavanya kwinqanaba elifikelelweyo. Ukuqhekeka kwenzeka kule nkqubo xa ilahleko yokuyeka ibethelwa lixabiso, emva koko iya kwicala “elichanekileyo”. Xa ukurhweba kwe-trend, ukumisa ukumisa kulula: kuyacetyiswa ukuba uzibeke kwiindawo ezintathu: emva komgca we-avareji ehambayo, emva komgca we-pullback wangaphambili, nangaphandle kwemigca yendlela eguquguqukayo.

Ingqikelelo ye-counter-trend, ulwazi lwabarhwebi ngokuchasene nentsingiselo

I-counter-trend yintshukumo yexabiso lexesha elifutshane ngokuchasene nolwalathiso lwangoku. Kumrhwebi, le ngongoma inomtsalane kuba yenza kube lula ukungena kwimarike kunye nomlinganiselo ophakathi womngcipheko kwinzuzo. Nangona kunjalo, ukufumana indawo efanelekileyo kwi-countertrend akuyona into elula. Kukho amathuba aphezulu okukhupha idiphozithi. Ngoko ke, esi sicwangciso sifanelekile kubahwebi abanamava. Ekwenzeni izigqibo ngaphakathi kwesakhelo se-counter-trend, zikhokelwa zezi parameters zilandelayo:

• misela icala elichanekileyo lentsingiselo yangoku;
• chonga amanqaku anokuba ngamaxabiso okubuyisela umva;
• fumana uphawu lokurhweba oluthembekileyo.

I-countertrend isekelwe kwingqiqo elula yolwazi oluqhubekayo. Ukuba bonke abatyali-mali bathi ixabiso le nto okanye loo mpahla iya kukhula, ngoko ke abaninzi sele bethenge ezi asethi kwaye balindele ukukhula. Ekubeni wonke umntu uthenge, ngoko umkhwa usondele ekuguquleni. Ukuba wonke umntu ubanga ukuba esi okanye eso sixhobo siya kuwa, ngoko uninzi ngokunokwenzeka luthengisile ii-asethi zabo kwaye, kusenokwenzeka, ukuguquguquka kwendlela kusondele ekuguqukeni kwicala lokukhula.

Indlela yokuchonga kunye nokubamba iindlela zokurhweba?

Indlela eqinisekileyo yokufumana intsingiselo kunye nentsingiselo kukusebenzisa i-avareji ehambayo kuhlalutyo lwakho. Esona sicwangciso sisiso kukumisela elona xesha lifanelekileyo kunye norhwebo ngaphakathi kulo kuphela. Iitshati zamanye amaxesha amisiweyo kufuneka zisetyenziswe emva kokuhlalutya ngononophelo.

Iimpazamo zokurhweba eziqhelekileyo

Ngokuqhelekileyo, abarhwebi banokungahoyi ingcebiso malunga nendawo yokungena engaphezulu kunye nendawo yokuphuma ezantsi. Enye impazamo eqhelekileyo kukungena kwisigaba sokumelana ngaphandle kokuqinisekisa ixabiso.

Ukungena kade

Xa ungena emva kwexesha, kuyanceda ukuthobela umgaqo “wokubeka ilahleko yokuyeka kwaye uyilibale.” Ngaphandle koko, umrhwebi kufuneka alungiselele oku kulandelayo:

• Uluhlu olubanzi lwelahleko yokuyeka;
• Umngcipheko / umvuzo uncitshisiwe ukusuka kwi-1: 4 ukuya kwi-1: 2;
• Kukho ithuba lokubetha incopho yomzila.

Ezi zinto zinokusetyenziselwa inzuzo yakho.

Ukurhweba kwimarike ekhulayo

Nantsi imigaqo:

• awukwazi ukuvula izivumelwano ngeli xesha xa ixabiso liphuma kwiindawo eziphezulu;
• ukungena kungenziwa kuphela emva kokulungiswa kwexabiso emva kokuphulwa okuphezulu;
• ungathembeli kakhulu kwiiodolo ezilindileyo.

Indlela yokuqonda i-angle yentshukumo ecaleni kwendlela?

I-angle yentshukumo ibonisa ubungakanani bokubonelela kunye nemfuno. Ukuba i-angle iphezulu, ngoko kukho abathengisi abaninzi kwimarike enjalo kunabathengi. Ukuba i-angle ithe tyaba kancinci, ke oku kubonisa inani elibalulekileyo labathengi abalungele ukujongana, kodwa inkqubo ayikaqali. Ukukwazi ukufunda amathambeka kuvula izithuba zokufumana iiseti ezinengeniso. Ukufumana indawo yokungena evumayo, kuluncedo ukudibanisa ii-angles zentsingiselo kunye neempawu zesenzo sexabiso. Eli gama lichaza izinto ezenzekayo kungekuphela nje ekurhwebeni, kodwa nakwisayensi esisiseko. Intsingiselo kuqoqosho yivector yentshukumo yezalathi. Kukwakho nomkhwa kwizibalo ezinceda ekuchongeni isikhokelo sophuhliso lweziganeko ezithile zentlalo. Ukukwazi ukufunda ezi zalathisi kunye nokuqaphela kunceda ukwenza izigqibo ezifanelekileyo kwezinye iindawo.