Uyini umkhuba ekuhwebeni, ukuthi ungawubona kanjani nokuthi ungahweba kanjani

Uyini umkhuba wokuhweba, ungawukhomba kanjani eshadini, nokuthi ungahwebelana kanjani nge-uptrend kanye ne-downtrend. Ikhono lokubona inkambiso ekuhwebeni lisiza ekuhwebeni ngempumelelo kwezimpahla. Ithrendi ngomqondo obanzi i-vector yokunyakaza kwentengo yempahla. Leli gama lasungulwa nguCharles Dow, umsunguli
wethiyori yokuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe . Ukuthambekela, ngamagama alula, kuyindlela yokulandelela ukuguquguquka kokukhula kanye nokwehla kwezintengo zempahla. Ngokusekelwe kulawa maphuzu, ungakwazi futhi ukunquma ukuphela kwethrendi. I-Dow Theory akuyona ukuphela kwethuluzi lokubikezela intengo elingaqondakali. Kuleli phuzu lokubuka, izinhlobo ezintathu zokuthrenda zingahlukaniswa: i-uptrend, i-downtrend ne-sideways. Ukuthambekela okusemaceleni ukungabikho kokukhula noma ukwehla. Elinye igama lalesi simo lithi “flat”.

Ungawubona kanjani umkhuba?

Ukuze uphendule lo mbuzo, kuyadingeka ukuqonda indima yalesi simo ekuhwebeni. Ukuhlaziywa kwevektha yokunyakaza kwamanani kuyisisekelo sokwenza izinqumo zokutshala izimali. Uma intengo ithrendayo, khona-ke ukuhweba cishe kwenza inzuzo. Kuzo zonke izimakethe zezimali, intengo ihamba ngendlela ye-zigzag. Le mazombezombe isiza ukwakha ukuhlaziya nokubikezela amanani. Ngenxa yalokhu, izindlela ezihlukahlukene zisetshenziswa. Lawa alandelayo:

1. Ukuhlaziywa Kwezithombe . Indlela yokwakha umugqa wokukhula kwentengo. Uma nje intengo ingaphezulu noma ingaphansi kwalo mugqa, abathengisi bathi intengo iyaqhubeka nokuthambekela.
2. Ukuhlaziywa Kwezobuchwepheshe . Izinkomba zisetshenziswa ekuhlaziyeni kobuchwepheshe. Ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe kusiza ukulandelela hhayi kuphela i-vector yamanani, kodwa namandla omkhuba. Kulokhu, izilinganiso ezihambayo zisetshenziselwa ukufeza umgomo.
3. Ukuhlaziya Okuyisisekelo . Kubandakanya ukuhlaziywa kolwazi, kusukela kwezobuchwepheshe kuye kwezomnotho. Ngokuphathelene ne-cryptocurrency, lokhu kusho ukufunda ulwazi mayelana nephrojekthi ye-cryptocurrency, i-ontology, izici ezihlobene, izinhlelo zephrojekthi, njalonjalo. Le ndlela ifaneleka ekwakheni isibikezelo sesikhathi eside.
4. Ukuhlaziywa kwevolumu . Izinga lokukhula nokwehla liyaqhathaniswa. Uma inani lokukhula libonakala, kunengqondo ukukholelwa ukuthi i-vector iqhubekela phezulu futhi kuzoba nokuhlehla maduzane. Uma ukuwa kukhulu, ukukhula kulindeleke.

Uma kukhona inkambiso enanini, noma yikuphi ukuhwebelana kuleso siqondiso kunenzuzo engaba khona. Kodwa akwanele ukuthi umhwebi ochwepheshe athembele endleleni enjalo ekha phezulu. Ukuze uqiniseke, udinga ukucacisa ngokucophelela indawo yokungena. Sithole ukuthi umkhuba uyini, uma sisebenza ngamagama alula. Manje umbuzo uwukuthi ungayisebenzisa kanjani? Isinyathelo esilandelayo ukwakha ukuhlaziya okuwumphumela kube isu lakho siqu. Kwenziwa kanjani? Kuyasiza ukucabangela lezi zimiso ezilandelayo:

1. Ithrendi ingumngane wakho omkhulu: ithrendi ingumngane omkhulu womhwebi. Indawo yokungena kwezohwebo kumele ibe ku-uptrend.
2. Kuyasiza ukusebenzisa amaphuzu amaningi okungena lapho kuqondiswa khona ithrendi. Ngesinye isikhathi, sebenzisa ingxenye yezimali, kwenye – enye ingxenye. Okusho ukuthi, ungathululi zonke izimali ngesikhathi esisodwa.
3. Sebenzisa ama-stop orders ukuze uvimbele ukulahlekelwa. Kutuswa ukuthi ubeke i-stop order ngemuva komugqa wokukhula futhi kufanele ulungiswe njengoba amanani eshintsha.
4. Ungakhohlwa ukuphuma ekuhwebeni ngesikhathi. Lokhu kungase kube ekufinyeleleni izinga elihleliwe lenzuzo. Noma lapho ulungisa i-stop order, lokhu kwenzeka ngokuzenzakalelayo.

Kubalulekile ukunaka iphuzu lokugcina. Ochwepheshe baxwayisa ngokuthi akulona ikhono lokumisa ngesikhathi elihluleka abaqalayo. Umkhuba uvame ukuphela ngokuzumayo, noma uguqule i-vector yokunyakaza. Khona-ke inzuzo ingaphenduka ukulahlekelwa.

Izinhlobo zezitayela zokuhweba

Ngokombono, izitayela kuzo zonke izimakethe zihlukaniswe ngezinhlobo ezilandelayo:

• Amathrendi omhlaba abuyela emuva . Akhombisa izinkombandlela ezijwayelekile zokuhamba.
• Amathrendi amaphakathi akalwa kusuka ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kuya eminyakeni eminingana.
• Izitayela zesikhathi esifushane zibonisa izinguquko ezimakethe zamanje. Lokhu kufaka phakathi ukunyakaza okuqagelayo kanye nezitayela ezingabalulekile.

Zontathu izinhlobo zamathrendi zikhona ngesikhathi esisodwa kuzo zonke izimakethe. Kubathengisi, amaphuzu amancane naphezulu abalulekile. I -Uptrend:
I-uptrend emhlabeni wonke ibizwa nangokuthi “i-bullish”. Ngaphakathi kohlaka lwalesi simo, kwenziwa ukuhlaziywa kokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zomhlaba, ukwanda noma ukwehla kokutshalwa kwezimali, njalonjalo. i-downtrend

Izigaba zokwakheka

Ukwakheka komkhuba kwenzeka ngezigaba ezintathu. Ake sicabangele ngayinye yazo.

1. isigaba sokuqongelela. Imvamisa yandulela isigaba sokuwohloka komnotho. Lo mzuzu ucatshangelwa kuhlelo lwabahwebi njengesiqalo sokuvula izikhundla ezinde. Kukholakala ukuthi inani selifinyelele ezingeni lapho ukuthengwa kwempahla kungaba inzuzo enkulu. Isigaba sokuqongelela sivame ukuqala ukukhula kwenani lempahla.
2. Umlingiswa omningi . Isibalo sabatshalizimali kulesi sigaba siyanda. Ukufika “kwesixuku” kulindeleke. Le nqubo yenzeka kancane kancane. Kulesi sigaba, ukukhula okuphezulu kwenani lezimpahla kuyabonwa. Ngokwesikhathi, lesi sikhathi side kunesigaba sokuqongelela kanye nesigaba esilandelayo.
3. Isigaba sokusabalalisa . Kulesi sigaba, amazinga okukhula awasho lutho noma ame. Leli yiphuzu lapho abatshalizimali abaningi becabanga ukuthi inzuzo yabo ehlosiwe kufanele ifinyelelwe. Baqala ukudayisa izimpahla kulabo abasafakwe kulo mkhuba. Amanani okuthengisa asuswa ngamavolumu amasha okuthenga. Ngemuva kwalokho, ijika lentengo liya efulethini noma liyehla.

Sicabangele i-uptrend. I-downtrend yilapho umjikelezo othile udlula ngaphansi komugqa wakudala. Izinguquko eziphawulekayo ekuguquguqukeni kokuhamba kwempahla nasekuguqukeni kwesigaba esisodwa kuya kwesinye, abatshalizimali abakhulu badlala indima ebalulekile. Umhwebi oyedwa, ngisho nephothifoliyo eqinile, akakwazi ukuthonya ukunyakaza komkhuba. Umgomo womhwebi kule nqubo ukuqaphela izigaba ngesikhathi ukuze anqume indawo yokungena efanelekile. Ngasekupheleni kwesiteji, amathuba okungena okungalungile ayanda. Kulokhu, esikhundleni senzuzo, umhwebi angathola ukulahlekelwa. Ungawadayisa kanjani ama-trendlines: https://youtu.be/JLXt4SzGcwQ

Izici Ezithrendayo

Umkhuba unezici ezimbalwa. Ingafingqwa ngokuya ngezici ezilandelayo:

• Ukuba khona kwesiqondiso : i-downtrend ne-uptrend.
• ubude besikhathi . Kunezinhlobo ezintathu: eyesikhathi esifushane, eyesikhashana kanye neyesikhathi eside.
• Amandla . Ibonisa inani labadayisi abathintekayo. Lapho abadayisi abaningi befakwa kulo mkhuba, kuba nethonya elikhudlwana abanalo esiqondisweni kanye ne-vector yayo. Futhi, inani labadayisi abathintekayo lithinta ibhalansi yabathengisi nabathengi bempahla. Izintengo zempahla zikhuphuka ngokulingana ngqo nenani labadayisi abahilelekile.

Futhi kuthiyori ye-Dow, izici eziyinhloko zomkhuba ziyagqanyiswa. Ngaphakathi kwalo mbono, izici ezilandelayo zingahlukaniswa:

• umkhuba okhulayo uvame ukuqhubeka eduze kwe-vector, okuzokwenza ukuhlehla okubukhali noma ukuphela;
• lapho umkhuba unamandla, uhlala isikhathi eside;
• ukukhula noma ukuwa kuvame ukuphela nganoma yisiphi isikhathi;
• uma esikhathini esidlule, ngaphansi kwezimo ezithile, i-vector enyakazayo ilalele iphethini ethile, lokhu akusho ukuthi futhi lo mthetho uzosebenza ngaphansi kwezimo ezifanayo.

Lezi zici zingalandelelwa ngokucacile yi-dynamics emakethe ye-cryptocurrency.

Amazinga anamandla

Amaleveli ashukumisayo ayizilinganiso ezihambayo. Kukhona izinga lokusekela kanye nezinga lokumelana. Uma ijika lethrendi lingaphezu kwejika lethrendi, khona-ke kuthiwa ukumelana. Uma ingaphansi komugqa, khona-ke lena indawo yokusekela. Izindawo zokungena kwezohwebo ziphakathi kwalezi zigaba.

Ungangena kanjani futhi uphume kanjani ekuhwebeni kohwebo?

Kubathengisi, umthetho wamazinga uyasebenza lapha: uma ijika lisezingeni lokumelana, udinga ukuthengisa impahla, uma iphansi, bese uthenge. Futhi, ukungena ngempumelelo kubhizinisi kuthathwa njengomzuzu wokuwela ama-avareji ahambayo. Nokho, akufanele ujahe. Abathengisi abanolwazi bayazi i-psychology yabaqalayo, ukuthi ngezithombe ezinjalo, bazoqala ngokushesha ukuvula amadili. Udinga ukulinda kuze kuvulwe inombolo eyanele yama-oda. Lokhu kubizwa ngokuthi isiqinisekiso.

Ungazithola kanjani izikhundla futhi ubeke izitobhi ekuhwebeni okuthrendayo?

Elinye lamasu alula futhi anenzuzo kakhulu ukuhweba ngesenzo samanani. Isenzo senani siyindlela lapho umthengisi egxila kuphela eshadini, enganaki izinkomba. Ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi ngaphakathi kwesenzo samanani kwenziwa ngezinga lokusekela, ukumelana namaphethini wamakhandlela. Futhi, njengengxenye yesenzo senani, ungaphatha ngempumelelo ubungozi bakho. Ukumisa ukulahlekelwa kuzosiza kulokhu. Ukuyeka ukulahlekelwa uphawu olubekwe kusengaphambili. Lokhu kuyadingeka ukuze kuqinisekiswe umthengisi ngokumelene nokulahlekelwa okukhulu ngesikhathi seshadi le-downtrend. Kunamasu ahlukene okulahlekelwa kokuyeka. Ochwepheshe batusa ukubeka ukulahlekelwa kokuma ngemuva kwezithiyo ezithile endleleni yokuthambekela. Yiziphi izithiyo? Ngokwesibonelo, lezi:

• amazinga okusekela kanye nokumelana;
• izimpawu zengqondo;
• ukuphakama nokuphansi kwamaphethini wakamuva wekhandlela.

Ukubeka isitobhi ngemuva komgoqo kuqinisekiswa yiqiniso lokuthi intengo ivame ukuhlola izinga elifinyelelwe. Ukuqhekeka kwenzeka kule nqubo lapho ukulahleka kwesitobhi kushaya inani, bese kuya ohlangothini “olulungile”. Uma ukuhweba okuthrendayo, ukusetha izitobhi kulula: kuyanconywa ukuthi uzibeke ezindaweni ezintathu: ngemuva komugqa omaphakathi onyakazayo, ngemuva komugqa wangaphambili wokudonsela emuva, nangaphandle kwemigqa yethrendi eguquguqukayo.

Umqondo we-counter-trend, ulwazi lwabahwebi ngokumelene nomkhuba

I-counter-trend iyinhlangano yentengo yesikhashana uma iqhathaniswa nendlela yamanje. Kumhwebi, leli phuzu liyathandeka ngoba lenza kube nokwenzeka ukungena emakethe ngenani elilinganiselwe lengozi yokwenza inzuzo. Kodwa-ke, ukuthola iphuzu elilungile ku-countertrend akuwona umsebenzi olula. Makhulu amathuba okuthi ukhiphe idiphozithi. Ngakho-ke, leli qhinga lifanele abadayisi abanolwazi. Ekwenzeni izinqumo ngaphakathi kohlaka lwe-counter-trend, ziqondiswa yimingcele elandelayo:

• nquma indlela efanele yenkambiso yamanje;
• thola amaphuzu okungenzeka ahlehliselwe intengo;
• thola isignali yokuhweba enokwethenjelwa.

I-countertrend isuselwe kungqondongqondo elula yolwazi lwethrendi. Uma bonke abatshalizimali bethi intengo yalokhu noma leyo mpahla izokhula, khona-ke abaningi sebevele bathenge lezi zimpahla futhi balinde ukukhula. Njengoba wonke umuntu ethengile, khona-ke ukuthambekela kuseduze nokuguqulwa. Uma wonke umuntu ethi lokhu noma lelo thuluzi lizowa, ngakho-ke cishe iningi lithengise amafa abo futhi, cishe, ukuguquguquka kwethrendi kuseduze nokuhlehla esiqondisweni sokukhula.

Indlela yokubona nokubamba izitayela ekuhwebeni?

Indlela eqinisekile yokuthola ithrendi nethrendi ukusebenzisa isilinganiso esinyakazayo ekuhlaziyeni kwakho. Isu elilungile ukunquma isikhathi esibekelwe kanye nokuhweba ngaphakathi kwalo kuphela. Amashadi ezinye izikhathi zesikhathi kufanele asetshenziswe ngemva kokuhlaziya ngokucophelela.

Amaphutha okuhweba okuthrendayo

Ngokuvamile, abathengisi bangakwazi ukungazinaki iseluleko mayelana nendawo yokungena ebheke phezulu kanye nephuzu lokuphuma eliphansi. Elinye iphutha elivamile ukungena esigabeni sokumelana ngaphandle kokuqinisekisa intengo.

Ukungena sekwephuzile

Lapho ungena sekwephuzile, kuyasiza ukunamathela esimisweni esithi “setha ukulahleka kokumisa bese ukhohlwa.” Uma kungenjalo, umhwebi kufanele alungele okulandelayo:

• Ibanga elibanzi lokulahlekelwa kokuma;
• Isilinganiso sengozi/somvuzo sincishisiwe sisuka ku-1:4 siye ku-1:2;
• Kukhona ithuba lokufinyelela phezulu kwethrendi.

Lezi zici zingasetshenziswa ukuze uzuze.

Ukuhweba emakethe ekhulayo

Nansi imithetho:

• awukwazi ukuvula amadili ngaleso sikhathi lapho intengo inqamula phezulu;
• ukungena kungenziwa kuphela ngemuva kokulungiswa kwentengo ngemuva kokuphuka okuphezulu;
• unganciki kakhulu kuma-oda alindile.

Indlela yokuqonda i-angle yokunyakaza kulo mkhuba?

I-engeli yokunyakaza ibonisa izilinganiso zokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa. Uma i-engeli ingumqansa, kusho ukuthi kunabathengisi abaningi emakethe enjalo kunabathengi. Uma i-angle iphansi kancane, khona-ke lokhu kubonisa inani elibalulekile labathengi abakulungele ukubhekana, kodwa inqubo ayikaqali. Amandla okufunda ama-slope avula izikhundla zokuthola ukusetha okunenzuzo. Ukuze uthole indawo yokungena evumayo, kuyasiza ukuhlanganisa ama-engeli ethrendi namasignali esenzo samanani. Leli gama lichaza izigigaba hhayi ekuhwebeni kuphela, kodwa nakusayensi eyisisekelo. Ukuthambekela emnothweni kuyi-vector yokunyakaza kwezinkomba. Kukhona futhi ukuthambekela kwezibalo esiza ekuboneni isiqondiso sokuthuthukiswa kwezimo ezithile zomphakathi. Ikhono lokufunda lezi zinkomba kanye nokuqaphela kusiza ukwenza izinqumo ezifanele kwezinye izindawo.