Volatility mumusika wemasheya – chii, kuti ungaishandisa sei mukutengesa

Chii chinonzi volatility mumusika wemasheya, yakaderera uye yakakwira kusagadzikana, kuverenga uye kuongorora. Pfungwa yekusagadzikana inogona kazhinji kuwanikwa mukuwanda kwekutengesa. Nokuti inofarirwa zvikuru ikoko. Iri izwi rinowanzoreva kuita kutengeserana kwakabudirira uye kufanotaura kwakanaka kwekufamba kwezvinhu zvakasiyana. Kubva pane izvi tinogona kugumisa kuti kusagadzikana chinhu chakakosha chikamu mukutengesa, pasina izvo zvinokwanisika kuti usangonzwisisa izvo vatori vechikamu vechero musika vari kutaura nezvazvo.

Volatility ndiko kushanduka kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakasiyana mumusika wekuchinjana. Zvichienderana nechinzvimbo chayo, inogona kunge yakakwira uye yakaderera, chinzvimbo ichi chinoenderana nepakati pakati pehupamhi uye hudiki gap mukukosha kwezvinzvimbo.

Mabhenefiti ekunzwisisa kusagadzikana kwemusika wemasheya akakura, kunyanya kune vatengesi uye vatengesi venguva pfupi, sezvo mitengo mumusika iri kuramba ichikwira nekudzika. Kubva pane izvi zvinotevera kuti kusagadzikana kunoratidza mutengesi huwandu hwekuchinja kwemutengo weasset. Ndiko kuti, iyo yakakwirira yehuwandu hwekushanduka-shanduka, iyo yakakwirira kushanduka. Izvi zvinoshandawo kune zvakapesana, ndiko kuti, kana musika wakanyanya kana kushoma kudzikama, ipapo kuderera kunodonha kusvika kushoma. Iyo volatility pachayo inoverengerwa sechikamu chemutengo weasset. Chii chinonzi kusagadzikana, kutengesa kune vanotanga: https://youtu.be/_jPvtBZ4WJI

Chii chinokanganisa volatility

Volatility inobatwa nenhamba yakakura yekunze uye yemukati zvinhu. Izvi zvinosanganisira: zviitiko zvakasiyana-siyana zvepasirese uye zvemakambani, macroeconomic factor, nhau dzemusika wekudyara, pamwe nemanzwiro evanodyara mari. Semuenzaniso, kana boka revatengesi vakakura uye vepakati vane kunyange kusava nechokwadi kuduku pamusoro pezvinhu, vanotanga kuzvitengesa muhuwandu, uye kubva pane izvi kuti kusagadzikana kunokura. Izvo zvinowanzoitika uye zvakakosha zvinhu uye zviitiko nei kushata kuri kukura zvicharatidzwa pazasi. Hezvino zvimwe zvacho:

1. Zviitiko zvakakosha zvehupfumi, zvemusika uye zvematongerwo enyika . Ichi chinhu chinosanganisira kurambidzwa kwakasiyana kwenyika kune imwe, kana kurambidzwa kwekambani huru kune imwe.
2. Kusimukira Kweupfumi uye Zvematongerwo enyika . Ichi chinhu chine simba guru pakusagadzikana. Uye zvakare chinhu ichi chinogona kukamurwa kuita mapoka maviri makuru:
   1. Macroeconomics . Iri boka rinomiririra ruzivo rwese pamusoro pehuwandu hwekushaya basa, GDP dynamics, base interest rates, inflation, mamiriro emari, nezvimwewo.
   2. Geopolitics . Uye boka iri rinosanganisira zvachose ruzivo rwese nezvesarudzo, nezvevashandi vehurumende, nezvezvirango, uye zvichingodaro.Chaizvoizvo, izvi ndizvo zvinonyanya kukosha uye zvinonyanya kukosha zviitiko munyika zvinokanganisa zvakanyanya masheya uye musika wekuchinjana, uye zvinogonawo kukonzera kwayo. volatility.

3. Company reporting . Zvakare, kusagadzikana kwezvigadzirwa zveimwe kambani kunogona kukanganiswa nekutaura kwavo kwemari, kuongororwa kwechigadzirwa kana ruzivo nezve kuunzwa kwakakosha zvigadzirwa zvitsva, zuva remuridzi, zvichingodaro. Ichi zvakare chikonzero chakakurumbira chekuchinja kusagadzikana, sezvo makambani anowanzo kuve nemhando yezviitiko zvisingafanoonekwi uye mamiriro.
4. Nhau uye Runyerekupe Dzakasiyana-siyana Dzakakurumbira . Ichi chikonzero zvakare chakakurumbira, sezvo paine nguva dzose makuhwa akawanda munhau anogona kukanganisa kuwedzera kana kuderera kwekusagadzikana. Semuenzaniso: mushure mekunge ruzivo rwakaonekwa paInternet kuti Yandex yaitenga Tinkoff Bank. Zvichienderana nerunyerekupe urwu, kusagadzikana kwezvikamu zveYandex neTinkoff zvakabva zvawedzera uye zvakapotsa zvasvika pakakwirira.
5. Kubata musika . Ichi chikonzero chinobva pane zviito zvevemabhizimisi makuru uye vatengesi vemisika, avo, nezvisarudzo zvavo, vane simba guru pane nzvimbo yekusagadzikana mukutsinhanisa uye misika yemasheya. Asi hatifaniriwo kukanganwa kuti havasi vanhu vanozivikanwa chete vane simba guru pamusoro pevanhu uye maonero avo vanogona kukanganisa kusagadzikana, asiwo vashandisiwo zvavo vesocial network. Asi usati waita manipulations akadaro, hatifanire kukanganwa kuti zviito izvi zvinogona kutungamira kune mamwe maitiro asina kunaka. Kunyange zvazvo zvakaoma kuvaratidza, zviri nani kusaisa pangozi mukurumbira wako.

Volatility Stocks 2022 – US Market: https://youtu.be/myyw5OngAHg

Zvinhu zvakanaka uye zvakashata zvekusagadzikana

Wese anozviremekedza anozvikudza anofanira kuziva zvakanakira nezvazvakaipira zveimwe neimwe yepfungwa mumusika wemasheya. Ndokusaka, semupfungwa yega yega, volatility ine zvese zvakanaka uye zvakaipa mativi kune investor.

Positive side

Volatility ine akawanda mabhenefiti ayo achabatsira vanoisa mari kuita purofiti kutengeserana mumusika wemasheya. Heino chimwe chezvakakosha. Kana paine kudhonzwa mumusika wemasheya, kusagadzikana kunobatsira vese vanoisa mari kutenga zvinhu zvinobatsira uye zvinobatsira. Panguva iyo mutengo wekugoverana wekambani huru unodonha chaizvo nekuda kwekusagadzikana, saka panguva ino vanowedzera vanova vakaderera uye panguva ino iyo migove uye chengetedzo inogona kutengwa nemutengo unoyevedza, nekuderedzwa kukuru.

Negative side

Asi volatility ine zvayo zvimwe zvakaipira uye zvakaipira kune investor. Asi zvikanganiso izvi zvinobata chete vatengesi vekutanga vanotya kushanduka pachayo. Heano mamwe ematambudziko iwayo:

1. Zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nekutya kushanduka-shanduka izvo vanoisa mari vanoita sarudzo dzakapusa uye dzisina musoro dzinokanganisa mihoro yavo. Semuenzaniso: dzimwe nguva vanotengesa kuchengetedzwa kwavo uye masheya chete kana mitengo yadonha zvakanyanya, asi kare panguva imwechete vanotanga kukwira. Imhaka yeizvi kuti zvinodikanwa kunyatso tarisisa kufamba kwekusagadzikana uye kubata nemusoro mafambiro ayo makuru.
2. Pamusana pekufamba kwekusagadzikana, kukosha kwese kwepodfolio kunogona kuderera zvakajeka. Dambudziko iri rakajairika kune vanoisa mari. Mushure mezvose, kusvika zvinhu zvese zvatengeswa, zvinongoonekwa sekurasikirwa chete. Kune vanoisa mari, uyu mutoro unorema wepfungwa, saka izvi zvinofanirwa kunyatsotariswa, zvikasadaro zvinogona kusatungamira kumhedzisiro yakanaka.

Volatility cryptocurrencies – 6 altcoins akanakisa kutengesa muna 2022: https://youtu.be/8jXTYihwi3M Volatility Index Volatility Index (VIX), aka online kutya index https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj2-KX11o31AhUz7rsIHb2oAuMQ3ecFegQICBAc

Maitiro ekushandisa volatility mumusika wemasheya

Volatility inotora basa rakakura mumusika wemari, ndosaka kana uchigadzira akakosha matekiniki, unogona kutarisa pairi. Chaizvoizvo, vatengesi vane ruzivo, kuti vaderedze njodzi, vanopinda mumusika wezvemari chete panguva yekudzikama, uye vozomirira kuwedzera kwakajeka kwekuita uye kusagadzikana, sezvo kune huwandu hukuru hwekuchinja kwemitengo. Parizvino, nzira iyi ndiyo yakanyanya kurongeka uye inobatsira pakati pevamwe vese.
Zvakare, hatifanire kukanganwa kuti kushata kune akati wandei nyika, uye kutarisa pazviri, iwe unofanirwa kuverenga zvese zvaunoita pachine nguva kuti usarasikirwe nemari yako yawakadyara. Heano mamwe ematunhu aya:

1. Low volatility . Ichi chiratidzo chinogona kutiudza kuti musika hauna kuzara nemirairo uye yakanyatso kurongeka, ndiko kuti, pane imwe nguva mutengo haufanirwe kuchinja. Asi izvi zvinongotora nguva yakareba sezvo huwandu hwekutengesa hunoramba hwakafanana. Izvi zvinoreva, kana pane imwe nguva pane kuchinja kamwe kamwe munhamba yevatengesi kana vatengi mumusika, ipapo panguva iyoyo mutengo uchafanira kukwira zvakanyanya.
2. High volatility . Kana mushambadzi achiona kuti pane kushanduka kwakanyanya mumusika, saka izvi zvinogona kuratidza kuti hapana chikonzero chekupinda mumusika izvozvi, sezvo zvisingazogoneki kutenga chero chinhu pamutengo wekutengesa. Iwe unofanirwawo kuyeuka kuti izvi zvinoonekwawo sekufamba kune ngozi zvikuru, sezvo munyaya iyi iwe haugoni kuwana chinhu chete, asiwo kutengesa mutsvuku.
3. Kuderera kwekusagadzikana . Kana iyo kusagadzikana ichidzika, saka izvi zvakanyatsofanana nekuderera kwakaderera kunogona kuudza mushambadzi kuti mutengo uchakura chete munguva pfupi iri kutevera uye kuti ino ndiyo nguva yakanakisa yekupinda mumasheya uye misika yekutsinhana kutsvaga zvinhu zvakasiyana siyana uye kuchengetedzwa. .
4. Kuwedzera kushanduka . Iyi nzvimbo yekusagadzikana inogona kutaurira mushambadzi kuti uyu mukana wakanaka wekupinda mumusika uye kutenga izvo zvinomubatsira zvakanyanya, zvisinei, sezvo mukana wekuvhura zvigaro unowedzera, njodzi yekurasikirwa inowedzerawo.

Volatility calculation

Kune marudzi maviri ekusagadzikana mumusika wemasheya:

1. Zvakaitika kana kuti zvakaitika kare . Iyi pfungwa inoratidza kutsauka kwemutengo kubva paavhareji chiratidzo kune chero yakambotangwa yekubhadhara nguva. Iwe zvakare unofanirwa kuziva kuti kazhinji kushanduka kunoyerwa sechikamu.
2. Zvinotarisirwa . Kusagadzikana uku kunomiririra kushanduka kwemutengo weramangwana uyo mutengesi anotarisira munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Ndiko kuti, inoonekwa seyakanyanya kufanotaura kukosha. Iwe zvakare unofanirwa kuziva kuti muzviitiko zvakawanda zvinotarisirwa kushanduka hazvienderane neicho chaicho. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti hazvibviri kufanotaura zvakarurama remangwana nguva dzese.

Kuti uverenge kushanduka kunogona kuitika mune ramangwana, hazvidiwi kushandisa mafomula. Chaizvoizvo, vatengesi vane ruzivo vanoiverenga zvinoenderana nematafura akatogadzirwa nemumwe munhu kare, uye ruzivo rwunotorwa kubva kune chero stock screener. https://marketchameleon.com/volReports/VolatilityRankings – scoring method yekuverenga volatility:
Imwe yedzakanyanya kufarirwa nzira dzekuzvimiririra kuverenga volatility ndeye kushandisa maspredishiti muExcel. Izvi zvinogona kuitwa uchishandisa yakajairwa kutsauka basa. Kuti uite masvomhu ese nemazvo, unofanirwa kuita zvinoenderana neyakagadzikwa chirongwa:

1. Kuti utange kuverenga kusagadzikana, unofanirwa kuvhura chirongwa cheExcel, chiri paanenge ese makomputa.
2. Isa data rese riripo kuchirongwa, wobva waisa fomura yaunoda yekuverenga kushata uye mari.
3. Tora mhedzisiro yaunoda mune yakazara icon.

Muenzaniso wekuverenga nhoroondo yekusagadzikana kweGazprom muchirongwa cheExcel inoratidzwa.